[For The Lead]

In the Sartin Methodology, it is a common guideline to skip Maiden races and especially maiden races where there are more than 2 first time starters. They are generally classified as “Unknown Factors”. This is not a maiden race, so there are certainly no first time starters. But are maiden races the only races that have Unknown Factors? Let’s look at each horse.


#1 – this horse has been running fairly well up north, except for its' last race on the turf. Take notice that this horse has been running in sprints “up north” at PRX, MTH and MED
#2 – this horse hasn’t run in 159 days. Take note that it has run at GG, OP, IND and ELP.
#3 – this horse has a ML of 20/1. Take note that this horse ran in a couple of turf routes at TAM last year and has been running in sprints up north at SUF since then.
#4 – this horse hasn’t run in 167 days and its’ races go back 474 days. Not good. Also, when it was racing, it primarily ran in route races. It has raced at MNR, LRL, TAM and CRC.
#5 – this horse has 5 races in the last 89 days. Only 1 is a “+ or (+)” race and that came in a route race. This horse has been staying closer to home, having raced at TAM last season, then CRC.
#6 – this horse hasn’t race in 269 days. All but one of its’ races are route races and most of those are turf races. Last season it raced at TAM and prior to that it raced at HAW and AP.
#7 - this is the only horse in the race with a “+” race, in a sprint, at today’s track. It is the horse’s only race in the last 90 days. It shows races going back 470 days. Not good. Most of its’ races are sprint races. Take note it has raced at DEL, PEN, TAM, GP, Mth and PRX, so it moves around just about every start. Not good.
#8 – this horse has been racing frequently and does have a race across the track. Almost all of its’ races are bad. That is to say, most of them are not “+” or “(+)” races. It has been running at DEL until its’ last race.
#9 – this horse’s last race was 89 days ago and it was bad. It also has a ML of 20/1. It shows races as far back as 429 days ago. Not good. The majority of its’ races are route races on the turf. It only shows a couple of good races and they were route races on the turf. It raced last season at TAM and then a couple of races at CRC before taking time off prior to the start of this meet.


How many "Unknown Factors" can you find in this race?

We have horses that haven't run in several months

We have horses, that when they were running, were running in route races. today's race is a sprint.

We have horses that, when they were running, were running in route races on the turf. today's race is a sprint on the dirt.

I think I counted 16 different race tracks that were represented by these horses.
If I counted correctly, just two of these horses have had a race across TAM at the current meet.

Is this the type of race that gives you confidence in your selection???