This race matches up 5 horses that raced together in their last race with the 1 wiring them in a slow pace. The field looks to have only one E, the one, 2 Pressers, two SPs (maybe) and 3 Sustained.
Recent races at Saratoga have been run very fast, but the only horse that has been on the lead is the 1, not only from its last, but from two European marathons where it took the lead. However, the best mile time for the one is about 139.2. The 1 has lost twice vs the best presser, the 4, so I will toss the 1 in the win equation. Maybe on the board if the 4 and 7 manage to force a faster pace.
Lose the 2-5-6 as well. The 3 only challenges from 3rd or 4th in slow miles, so its out.
this leaves the 4-7 and 8, 8 being an SP
The 4 has run 3-3-3 of a 135.6 mile and 6-6-1 off of a 134.6 mile.
the 7 has three races with miles of 135.1, running 4-5-25, 8-6-3, and 4-5-4
the 8 has run 136.7 and 136, running 6-5-2 and 5-4-3
First in line to inherit the lead is the 4 followed by the 7. You can see both have won at the grade 3 level and no horse in this field has won above this level. Interestingly, the race class for the 4 is 116 and there is another at 114. this horse has been competitive at the Grade 2 level.
4 and 7 dutched to the odds. The 8 and 1 for minor spots.