Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Preakness

Bill V. · 05-16-2017, 10:37 PM

QUOTE]Bill,

I was looking for the projected time Always dreaming will run the Preakness and the Belmont stakes based on his past times.[/QUOTE]

To you. I am sorry,

How can I tell? I have no past performances yet , When they come available, if I was smart enough I would use Hats method of projections,
I suggest you read Hats work ,
I believe you the procedure is , find horse to set the first two calls, then you determine the final time, But you need to do this
based on how they have run the distance in the past, when running against the pace you project, but how can you do this in the remaining 2 triple crown races? When nobody except the derby horses have run the distance ?
One could base it on the derby fractions but Howard Sartins main rule is never rate a horse off the derby pace line,
That is why I made the 25 race chart, The final time for both races
Is at the bottom , Its an average but , lets use Funny cide as a example
He was not a great horse coming in, He was 12/1 not great but not a long shot, He won the Preakness in 1minute 55 .3 seconds by 9 3/4 lengths
to me he represents how a decent Preakness winner should run on a fast track

Good Skill
Bill

05-16-2017, 10:37 PM	#5
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Hat QUOTE]Bill, I was looking for the projected time Always dreaming will run the Preakness and the Belmont stakes based on his past times.[/QUOTE] To you. I am sorry, How can I tell? I have no past performances yet , When they come available, if I was smart enough I would use Hats method of projections, I suggest you read Hats work , I believe you the procedure is , find horse to set the first two calls, then you determine the final time, But you need to do this based on how they have run the distance in the past, when running against the pace you project, but how can you do this in the remaining 2 triple crown races? When nobody except the derby horses have run the distance ? One could base it on the derby fractions but Howard Sartins main rule is never rate a horse off the derby pace line, That is why I made the 25 race chart, The final time for both races Is at the bottom , Its an average but , lets use Funny cide as a example He was not a great horse coming in, He was 12/1 not great but not a long shot, He won the Preakness in 1minute 55 .3 seconds by 9 3/4 lengths to me he represents how a decent Preakness winner should run on a fast track Good Skill Bill