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Hey guys,
I am interested in getting opinions on what I think is an interesting predictive factor from my record keeping. I am always looking for ways to reduce the work load and spend more time matching the contenders that matter.
I have a database for two years of all the tracks I play. It includes only non-maiden races of 7 or more horses running on non-off surfaces. So for 2016/2017 a total of 10,000 races breaks down to about 4500 dirt sprints, 2500 dirt routes, 2500 turf routes, and 500 turf sprints.
Of the factors to the left on the entries screen that aren’t affected by paceline selection Composite Speed Rating or CSR averages out with the winner coming from the top 4, 70% of the time. Is this not fairly impressive? More specifically DS=73%, DR=72%, TR=65%, and TS=68%. Betting on the top CSR horse alone returns -13% ROI.
Now when you read the Matchup section you frequently come across The Hat telling Rich that he likes fast horses. He only bets on fast horses. Makes sense that the top 4 CSR horses are fast horses. APV and CR or CR+ don’t match this level of performance. I didn’t have PL at the time so I have no stats for that. Keep in mind that this excludes short fields. With fields of 6 or less included the number jumps to 75%.
The races were done for the purpose of the database with auto paceline best of last three comparable. With that the RX1 factor comes in at 60% top 4. Didn’t have RX2 and RX3. Nothing close to 85% that some of you have reported.
I just find it interesting that without doing any handicapping or paceline selection at all there is a way to be working with the winner 70% of the time when looking at top 4 CSR. Any of your large databases should reflect the same thing. I didn’t do anything special except keep the database.
Is there something here?
Pook
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