Class Rating analysis: Our top 3 runners are #4 (5/2 ML), #2 (10-1 ML) and #9 (5-1 ML).
Setting the fulcrum: I examined both the 5.5F and 6F races, and the likely pace of race looks to be off #1A's 22.2/46.4 last line. #1A also shows multiple + or win lines vs. this pace.
Pacelines (in Pgm # order):
#1 - No Line/No Form. Shows a single + race vs. today's fulcrum, but that was way back in L6. The drop from Allowance down into a slow race vs. $16k company did nothing to reverse this one's recent fortunes.
#1A - Line 1/Sustained. The fulcrum horse. Line 1 is a + line in today's class. TE 169.7.
#2 - Line 3/Early Presser. Line 1 is excused being that it came off the layoff. Line 2 is excused due to the extremely fast pace (validated by the -27 DTV). Line 3, while "old", is our only "usable" paceline. It is not a true "Early" as it seems incapable of going wire-to-wire. TE 169.0.
#3 - Line 3/Early Presser. Line 1 is a plus/zero route race (non-comparable). Line 2 was a tardy break trouble line. Line 3 (another "old" line) is the most recent comparable + line, and it is a Win line. However, it is a likely non-contender due to the slow nature of its recent TE's and the slow nature of the + line. TE 166.3.
#4 - Line 1/Presser. A last out win in today's class vs. today's fulcrum. There is nothing else to consider. Its TE rebounded to neighbor its best races from last year. Perhaps a sign that this runner is rounding into peak form? TE 170.2.
#5 - Line 1/Early Presser. Another likely non-contender. Its win from the last line was a slow pace/slow final time. Had there been a recent comparable + line off today's fulcrum pace, I would have selected it instead, owning up to Line 1 being the result of a fluke track. Reality is that this horse is rising in class with weak TE totals, and that is not promising. TE 166.7.
#6 - Line 1/Sustained. Last line is a + line and is being raised in class off a claim. However, its last line as well as its subsequent races prior are weak on the TE factor. Another likely non-player. TE 167.6
#7 - No Line/No Form. You have to go to L6 to find at least a usable plus/zero line and L7 to find a usable + line. Even if you discount L1 (+21 DTV), its TE ratings are weak coming into this race, despite the drop from $16k down to $12.5k.
#8 - Line 1/Presser. The last line is a win line, and this horse is making a logical rise in class off the claim. If you discount L3 (DTV -40), its TE ratings are consistent. However, it will need to either make a leap forward or a race dynamics breakdown to be serious. TE 168.6.
#9 - Line 2/Early Presser. Even though L1 was a + race (off the layoff no less), I excused it for ratings purposes due to the slow pace/slow time/slow DTV. L2 on a "normal" track is consistent with its recent + lines. TE 168.3.
Here is the overview of my line selections:
Let's get this race down to our primary Win contenders. Here is the Energy screen:
The TE spread is pretty wide. 170.2 down to 166.3. As I surmised in my paceline analysis, #3, #5 and #6 are weak in this matchup. Supporting this fact are the Adjusted Speed Ratings. The Top 4 contenders range between 83-86. #3's selected paceline ASR is a 78, while #5 and #6's selected paceline ASR's are both 80. It will likely take a breakdown in race dynamics for those horses to win today. Out they go.
We have narrowed the race down to our Top 5 and will send these horses to Phase I (PMTR/TPR):
My initial observation is that Phase I is very friendly to the top "Tandem 1" horses #4 and #1A. #4 has the top rankings in EPR, LPR and overall TPR, while #1A naturally has the 2nd best EPR (tied), LPR and TPR. Interesting to note is that #2 was well behind in said tandem, but we excused that line due to the layoff. The line we gave (L3), gives it the 3rd best EPR and 3rd best TPR in the field. The horses out of this tandem race appear to be very strong in this matchup.
#8's TPR is only .2 points worse than #2, while #9, with the 2nd best EPR (tied) has the bottom TPR. #9's record on what will likely be an off-track, is abysmal. Based on both Energy, ASR and Phase I, #9 looks likely to be culled from our mix. A quick check of the PoH Velocity screen shows the following:
#9's paceline with the 2nd best turn time, but the worst F3, True Speed, and Deceleration. Its Med% of 69.5 is a high expenditure compared to the remainder of this field. Without a model/profile for guidance, I couldn't tell you whether it is outside the "winning" parameters for a 6F race at Parx. Regardless, the horse has too many strikes against it and can't be considered a serious "Win" horse in today's matchup. Final hide. The remaining four runners will now go to the Bottom Line Betting Line, where we will ascertain our tiers.