Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill V. · 11-23-2008, 03:01 PM

Page 57 Matching Running Lines
Jim Bradshaw

Matching Running Lines

Pace line selection is one of the most important components in handicapping. If you can select the true running line, you can win most of your wagers. Remember, this is a horse race, and you must eliminate all prejudices to make The Match Up work. The horses run the race, not the jockeys or trainers.

The track has very little influence on the outcome of the race. The winner of the race is how the contenders in today's race match up against the other horses in the race.

Sure there are times that a horse may "wake up" and run better than he has ever run. This is an out of the blue behavior that can happen in horse racing, and will rarely be influenced by the trainer, jockey or the track. In isolated cases these three components may decide the outcome of the race. If you insist on relying on these elements, it is impossible to learn The Match Up. In establishing the true contenders, and proper pace line, you need to make a complete analysis of all horses past performances.

The last race is very important and we should view this race in determining current form. We do not need to use this line, but do not readily forgive bad races. LEarn to be flexible and decide what the horse can do against the other horses in the race. It is meaningless how a horse ran in his last good race because it must face a totally new situation today.

The horse has never faced this match up before, and will never face this match up again. How is today's race going to run? How is this horse going to run?

Most of the time when you have found the true contenders, you will have the winner in your top three or four horses. It is necessary to eliminate horses that do not have a chance of being in the money. The more contenders you have "picking" the winner will become more difficult.

The selection of the line that best predicts how the horse will run in today's race is the "key" in using The Match Up. Look at the total past performance to decide the best line that matches the pace and represents the running style of the horses in today's match up.

A unique way of picking running lines and contenders to make check marks, or draw lines through races that dio not represent the horse's ability. Draw lines through the past performances of the hores based on distance, surface condition and running style. In most instances the only lines left open are lines representing today's distance.

Internal fractions may be used from a route, but if there is a good sprint line, use the sprint line, because we want to know how the horse can perform in a sprint.

This gives us a clear picture of the horses chance in the race. All horses are given lines, but we can readily see that very few are really contenders. Writing down the selected line is a good way to view the pace line match up and finding the winner.

Later you will need to do this exercise mentally, so you can keep your form clean.

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11-23-2008, 03:01 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	from The Match Up 2 The 5 step Approach Page 57 Matching Running Lines Jim Bradshaw Matching Running Lines Pace line selection is one of the most important components in handicapping. If you can select the true running line, you can win most of your wagers. Remember, this is a horse race, and you must eliminate all prejudices to make The Match Up work. The horses run the race, not the jockeys or trainers. The track has very little influence on the outcome of the race. The winner of the race is how the contenders in today's race match up against the other horses in the race. Sure there are times that a horse may "wake up" and run better than he has ever run. This is an out of the blue behavior that can happen in horse racing, and will rarely be influenced by the trainer, jockey or the track. In isolated cases these three components may decide the outcome of the race. If you insist on relying on these elements, it is impossible to learn The Match Up. In establishing the true contenders, and proper pace line, you need to make a complete analysis of all horses past performances. The last race is very important and we should view this race in determining current form. We do not need to use this line, but do not readily forgive bad races. LEarn to be flexible and decide what the horse can do against the other horses in the race. It is meaningless how a horse ran in his last good race because it must face a totally new situation today. The horse has never faced this match up before, and will never face this match up again. How is today's race going to run? How is this horse going to run? Most of the time when you have found the true contenders, you will have the winner in your top three or four horses. It is necessary to eliminate horses that do not have a chance of being in the money. The more contenders you have "picking" the winner will become more difficult. The selection of the line that best predicts how the horse will run in today's race is the "key" in using The Match Up. Look at the total past performance to decide the best line that matches the pace and represents the running style of the horses in today's match up. A unique way of picking running lines and contenders to make check marks, or draw lines through races that dio not represent the horse's ability. Draw lines through the past performances of the hores based on distance, surface condition and running style. In most instances the only lines left open are lines representing today's distance. Internal fractions may be used from a route, but if there is a good sprint line, use the sprint line, because we want to know how the horse can perform in a sprint. This gives us a clear picture of the horses chance in the race. All horses are given lines, but we can readily see that very few are really contenders. Writing down the selected line is a good way to view the pace line match up and finding the winner. Later you will need to do this exercise mentally, so you can keep your form clean. Traveling over the river or through the woods this holiday season? Get the MapQuest Toolbar. Directions, Traffic, Gas Prices & More!