Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless
FTL
Why do you say when looking at PP'S start from bottom up?
Jeff
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That’s a good question, especially when asked of someone like me. Why? I am a strong advocate of picking lines from the top down. The exact opposite of my suggestion to read PP’s from the bottom up. So here is your answer.
If I wanted to know the life story of “Shoeless” I would probably go back to the day you were born. Who were your parents? How many brothers and sisters did you have? Where did you go to school? Were you a good student? Did you play sports? What sports were they? And so on and so on. The idea being to learn how “Shoeless” got to the point in life where he is today. I am sure that as your life unfolded we could see high points and low points. We could see where you made good decisions and bad decisions. We have all made them.
In horse racing we only get to go back 10 races, but in most cases that is enough. By starting from the bottom and reading up we get to learn a lot about the horse, as it happened, but at all times we must read the conditions of today’s race first. That way we know where the horse is headed (today’s race), so in the back of our mind we are comparing each of its’ efforts to where it is going today. We try to determine if today’s race will be better or worse for the horse. What we are doing is reading each line paying attention to not just the claiming price, but to the condition of the race. We pay attention to the track the horse ran at and does that have any bearing on the horses performance? We look at the type of track (dirt, poly, turf). How did the horse react to each type of track it ran on and did it run good or bad on “off” tracks. If the horse had a bad performance was it because of the type of track or perhaps the horse was place at a class level where it could not compete. When you come across a race where the horse won or ran very well, was there anything in its’ races just before it that indicated a coming good race? Look at the time between races. Does that information tell us anything? A very lengthy layoff could indicate the possibility of an injury. At all times we are paying attention to “how” the horse ran in each of its’ races. Was it early, presser or sustained? Did the distance of the race have a bearing on how the horse ran? As an example, I have seen many horses that run early at 6 furlongs, but consistently run as a presser at 5.5 furlongs. Take note of claims. Horses don’t always take to new surroundings and regiments. They may need a race with a new trainer before reverting back to form. Owners/trainers claim horses because they think they can improve the horse. That doesn’t always pan out. Many times they end up with buyers remorse. Just be aware of it. In short, you have to be aware of every piece of information you can see. It all matters, good or bad. In some cases, but not all cases, following the horses life (so to speak) leads us to the conclusion that the horse is a legitimate contender in today’s race. Other times our journey shows us the horse is not prepared to compete today. It is not easy and is not something you learn overnight, but you have to start sometime if you are interested in improving your handicapping skills.
I take a lot of heat for analyzing a horse after it won or a race after it is over. Most recently, that was the case with the horse that won the CT race. It was the only horse shown so I looked it and offered and alternate look at it to allow people to see the horse in a different light. (my alternate look was based on what I just laid our for you) When I think about it, I can’t recall any teaching race in any follow up that was shown before that race was run. Funny how that works. When trying to teach you use examples. Examples naturally come from past experience. I can’t think of any author who writes a book illustrating how to lose races. I doubt that that would be a very big seller. Authors always show old races, races that are long since over, as examples of how to get a winner. I wonder if they get heat too? Nahhh. They just get money from the sale of their book that “red boards” on every other page! But, hey, who cares? People hand over their money and are happy to so if it means learning how to pick more winners. As far as they are concerned..."red boarding" be damned. Just show us how to get more winners!
You have been around here a long time. I think you understand that my interest has always been in trying to help people to get more winners. And what the hell, it doesn't even cost anything!