I just thought I would offer an alternate look at the winner.
Before you begin to handicap any race, and therefore any horse, the first thing you must do is read the conditions of the race. It’s not me saying that, “DOC” said it. That’s right, it’s in the manual. I was doing that 20 years before I read that in his manual, but that doesn’t really matter, I was just glad to see “Doc” giving important and accurate information even though he didn’t go into any great detail on the subject. In this race those conditions are “$5,000 claiming for non winners of two races in six months”.
Ok, moving along, let’s take a closer look at today’s track. Today’s race is at CT (Charles Town) a “bull ring”. Why is it called a bull ring? Because the track has a 6 furlong circumference as compared to most tracks that are 1 mile in circumference. Let’s take “Lrl” for an example, a seven furlong race there is around one turn, while a 7 furlong race at “CT” is around 2 turns. This makes trying to compare times ridiculous. There is no comparison. At “Lrl” the horses run almost ½ mile before encountering a turn. At “CT”, however, the horses encounter a turn before running ¼ of a mile. At “CT” the turns are tighter and the straightaways are shorter. These differences have an influence on not just times, but how the horse(s) actually run their race. Getting position going into a sharp turn can be crucial because the shorter straightaway doesn’t give as much time for overcoming a mistake.
Also, CT is one of the cheapest thoroughbred tracks in the country. Horses don’t start their careers there, but many of them end it there. Not sure about that? How many MSW (maiden special weight) races for two year olds do you see there? For that matter, how many of those type races do you see there for 3 year olds? Now, see how many races there have horses than are 6,7,8 and older. Why am I mentioning all this?
The eventual winner shows 10 races, 4 of those races are at tracks of better quality and larger circumference, “Lrl”and “PIM”. I would eliminate all 4 of those races. That leaves 6 races, all at CT. It is interesting to note that the eventual winner won 3 of those 6 races. That’s 50%. Not bad!
And now the hard part.
It was asked in this thread where would the eventual winner get the necessary LPR and/or TPR in order to make it a contender? Let me offer an explanation.
“DOC” said, and it is in the manual, that a horse that just ran on the lead or fought for the lead in the first two fractions of its’ last race, regardless of distance, is sitting on a “big effort”
regardless of how it finishes. Well, that assumes the horse is placed in a race where it can deliver that “big effort”. Obviously a $5,000 claimer that just ran on the lead the first two fractions of its’ last race and then runs in a GRADE I race is not going to deliver that “big effort”. But how about its’ next race if it returns to the $5,000 claiming level? It makes sense that it is still sitting on that potential “big effort”. But how do you quantify that potential “big effort”? Numerically, you don’t!
With computer programs being what they are today, the majority of people are handicapping “by the numbers”. Here’s the problem. Horses are not machines. They don’t have settings where you can just dial up a number you want them to run. Here’s the good news though. Horses can and will deliver the numbers you are looking for based on their competition. Let’s take a look at the eventual winner’s last couple of races AND today’s race.
In the race 2 back the horse had the lead for the first two calls. (REMEMBER WHAT “DOC” SAID!) In the last race the horse ran at PIM, that’s a step or two above the level of horse running at CT, not to mention a complete change in track configuration. I’m not surprised, based on the horse’s past performances, that it did not run well. Now let’s look at today’s race.
For today’s race we are back to CT, a plus for the horse. Today’s race is at the lowest class level it has run at in months, another plus for the horse. And now one of the biggest pluses. For the first time, the horse is in a race with a condition. (REMEMBER, “DOC” SAID YOU SHOULD ALWAYS READ THE CONDITIONS OF THE RACE BEFORE YOU DO ANYTHING!) Today, the horse is running against “non winners of two races in the last 6 months”, a big drop from “open” (no condition) company, not to mention the drop in class level that comes with it. When you take all this into consideration you can expect this horse to run that “big effort” “DOC” talked about, just one race later.
For me, personally, line 2 is the line. I think it was already pointed out that using that line shows the horse to be a couple of points higher on EPR than any other horse. (for me personally, I would have an “FFR” (first fraction rating)) Anyway, if line 2 shows this horse to be a couple of points higher on EPR than any other horse, then how much better will it be today with all the various factors mentioned in its’ favor? Sorry. There is no formula for developing a number. The handicapper has to decide this for themselves. The better handicappers will “get it”. The other ones won’t.
Recall that Jim Bradshaw talked about “VOODOO”. Has anybody figured that one out yet? I didn’t think so. But many people still adhere to it. Funny. Perhaps “voodoo” isn’t some mysterious, black magic “BS”, but rather, an understanding of horse racing.
Here is the horse with the races at “Lrl” and “PIM” lined out, leaving only relevant races at “CT” remaining.
Then see the review of each race after the horse's PP's.
Let's look at the winner line by line starting from the bottom.
line 10 - a win vs. NW2L for $5,000
line 9 - a win vs. NW3L for $5,000 (winning these two conditions back to back is uncommon)
line 8 - a more or less even race vs. "OPEN" company for $6,250
line 7 - a race at "Lrl" that should be ignored
line 6 - a win while moving right back to the same condition and claiming level as line 8
line 5 - a race at "Lrl" for $7,500 vs. "OPEN" company that should be ignored
line 4 - a race at "Lrl" for $7,500 vs. "OPEN" company that should be ignored
line 3 - a race vs. "OPEN" company for $10,000 (way over its' head)
line 2 - a race vs. "OPEN" company for $6,250 (it leads at the first two calls)
line 1 - a race at "PIM" vs. "OPEN" company for $7,500 that should be ignored
TODAY'S RACE - NW26M (non winners of 2 races in the last 6 months) vs. $5,000
Best of luck to everyone.