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Old 02-05-2019, 09:36 AM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Those that don't review the automatic procedure will pay the price of having more losers. It does not take long to review. What I have found is that the program uses the last 3 lines rather than the last 3 lines at a comparable distance and surface.


Every horse has a best distance and surface. Even very classy horses can compete at different distances and surfaces however their best races as indicated by wins, best total energy or best Preceptor which can indicate a specific distance or surface. Trainers and owners frequently enter their horses at inappropriate conditions because no other race is available in the condition book and they have a sharp horse, don't want to pay the shipping costs,or are just plain inept. And there is lots of that. What better time to try something than when the horse is sharp or peak form. Such as turf, the horse will have no excuse and what do they learn if the horse is out of form? Nothing
at all.


It is a fact that the further one goes back for a line the less likelihood its the same horse.(form factor) Sartin recommended never going back past the 5th line. Also that the further one goes back the % of having the correct line drops off, or in other words more line #1 win that lines 5 etc. This has more to do with the form factor of a horse than what the actual line is.

While I ignore the guideline of the 5th line I'm successful at it because of experience and an analysis of a horses record. There are exception to every rule and most people are rule orientated and lack the experience to make the proper judgmental decisions in rare or unusual situations that are a minority to the norm. Therefore I recommend Sartin guidelines (not rule) of never going past line 5 for a proper pace line. This will capture all but the rarest of situations but will produce better prices and get more winners than restricting one's self to blindly accepting the last 3 lines without verification.

Like Lt1 I override the program whenever I disagree with it. Your brain is smarter than the program.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-05-2019 at 09:41 AM.
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