Quote:
Originally Posted by dandy68
good info ted; on the TX insight i am using % of win pool or the numbers to the side, like 0.0, 1.8, etc., to find which horse has more bets skewed to the win?
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The 'Tote Xray' readout is the one with the caption on the column (of various screens) which says ... Tote Xray, or Tx! In this column you will find numbers starting at 0.0 and ranging upwards from there. These numbers simply mean: % deviation from BEST - a format we use on a variety of different readouts throughout RDSS - the 'magic number' itself is immaterial and different numbers are on all different kinds of scales: the important thing is 1) RANK and 2) GAP between ranks). Thus, 0.0% means that Tx number (the number is not shown) is the BEST and ranked #1 and coloured RED. All other numbers are shown as a % deviation from best: thus a number of 1.5 in GREEN is ranked 2nd and means 1.5% worse than the best number, which is 0.0%. Often (and not just with Tx), 2 ranks will be very close, e.g. 0.0 and 0.1 and this is not a very big GAP = they are almost the same value and impact, even though they are 'technically' ranked #1 and #2.
So - Tx ranked #1 means: a formula involving relationships between W-P-S pools, Win Odds and pool totals (formula not public) where, compared to the other horses' WPS pool money, relatively more money is weighted towards the Win Pool - i.e. a better opinion about this horse by 'somebody' or by aggregate wisdom. With Tote Xray, we are looking for 'hidden' info not necessarily reflected in the Win Odds themselves (hence the 'Xray' idea). When TX ranks agree with Win Odds ranks, there is no extra information. When Tx
disagrees with Win Odds, for example the horse is 8-1 and rank #4 Win Odds, but Tx rank #1 or Tx rank #2 with a low % gap - then that is EXTRA information. Someone (i.e. NOT the general public), thinks well of the horses chances (rightly or wrongly) and has bet more money in the Win Pool than the 'normal' distribution of WPS for
that horse, AND the normal distribution of the
pool totals. Even though other horses have more money bet on them, i.e. the other horses have better Win Odds.
The % of Win Pool numbers next to the Win Pool $$$ are just a convenient reminder of what percent of the total pool is bet on that horse (and Odds are simply a convenient and historical way of expressing percentages; e.g. a horse has 33.33% of the Win Pool money is the same as 2-1 odds = 100 / 33.33 - 1 = 2-1 odds).
So - use the Tx column RANKS (and sometimes GAPS between ranks) and get some confirmation of your well ranked BL/BL horse going off at somewhat longer odds if it is none-the-less well-ranked in Tx. Do this as close to post (aka bet-time) as possible, and distrust longshots with little money bet on them with oddly skewed TX numbers. Tx info on horses in the Top 4-ish Win Odds ranks, close to post are most reliable. (I know that money flows into the pools after you can place a bet, and the ranks and gaps change; but the Tx ranks don't change 'wildly' - like from rank #1 to Rank #4 - and anecdotally, can be relied upon for whatever they're worth even if closing Win Odds drops notably).
Note: tote board analysis and the Tote Xray is not necessarily a substitution for skilled handicapping of PP info! It is just another tool in the bag of the skilled practitioner. On the other hand - all our handicapping analysis comes down in the end to pricing of our opinion in the public market, thus the more awareness we have of what's going on there - the better perception we can have about how or whether to bet.
Ted