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Old 08-20-2016, 02:33 PM   #11
The Pook
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,531

Since you have to wager on a minimum of ten races you have to push yourself into less than ideal situations. This is one for me, but I think I have a reasonable chance for a score.

No reliable early to grab onto. No reliable FPLR. No usable tandem scenarios.

Will narrow field using conditions.
a) In the last year #6 to #9 are winners of the 1 OT condition. #7,#8,#9 are three year olds. #6 is older but still in the 1 OT condition.
b) #1 to #5 are older horses winning in tougher conditions since Aug 2015 (except #3)

In #1 to #5ís races showing
a) #1 has never appeared in a Graded race
b) #2 has never appeared in a Graded race
c) #3 has appeared in three Graded races and was semi-competitive in his last one
d) #4 has appeared in two Graded races and was not competitive
e) #5 has appeared in four Graded races and was competitive in all four

Adjusted speed ratings of best of the last three races are tightly bunched. It may come down to who they have been running against.

#3 has good works
#5 won his last

#3 and #5 are my horses. Odds are 14-1and 5-1.

#3,#5 to WIN; #3 to PLACE
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