View Single Post
Old 11-16-2020, 09:45 AM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Contenders are nothing more than a starting point. A player still must whittle down those five to a workable solution that will produce success for their final analysis.

They should also conduct a quick review of non-contenders for those horses that are overlooked by whatever means they get their contenders. Many of these non-contenders are downgraded from falsely gathered data or the data primarily used to obtain their contenders. Days since last race is a prime example as are repeaters etc.

Determining true contenders is the real goal and the ability to determine just how contentious a race rally is. Many of this years B.C. races had 14 starters and eliminating 7 of those horses is nothing but a starting point and no guarantee of success. The BC Classic only had 10 horses but at least 5 legit contenders, a very contentious race.

Thankfully most races only have 3 legit contenders regardless of the field size and the greater the field size the greater the degree of difficulty for our competitors to get it correct. However with just 3 many will still bet the wrong two horses.

Field size really takes a back seat to the number of real contenders in any size field. In other words even in a 6 horse field, all 6 can be legitimate contenders in one race and in another six horse field only one real contender. Contenders are just a starting point for success. Finding true contenders and winners is really the name of this game. Those without a good starting point are doomed to failure regardless of field size.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-16-2020 at 09:48 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote