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Old 06-13-2018, 02:47 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Here are the 9 races in the PPs for the two. How did he get to this race, this day?

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The following is what FTL sent me when I questioned him about lifetime records and their reliability.

"The first thing that would catch my eye is that there are no early horses in the race.

The next thing would be all the “1 fors” with way too many races.

Is there anything that stands out about the winner? Damned right there is!!

Let’s start by noting that among all the big 1 fors, this horse is 1 for 9. Ok. No big deal.

Here is the big deal.

Just look at the class for all the horses.

Most of them have been running against older horses around the same level as today and for the same condition as today. They just keep losing versus the same class and condition.

Now to the winner.

I’ll pick up with its’ maiden win versus $30,000 maiden claimers.
Then it goes to ALW-NW1X
Then it tries SA 30K
Then OPEN $25K, 3 year olds only
Then OPEN $15K, 3 year olds only
Then OPEN $11K, 3 year olds only
Then $15K, NW2L versus 3 year olds only
Finally, $7.5K, NW2L, versus older horses for the first time

This history stands out like a neon sign (in a good way) when compared to the rest of the field.

When you consider that following the guidelines gets you down to just 3 horses, with the winner being one of them, this class level advantage sets it apart.

If you feel like gambling a little, 6/1 ain’t bad in this spot.

Sometimes you can find spots like these are better than all the numbers you can come up with.

What I'm hoping for is that you will come to understand that "the numbers" don't always matter. Naturally every race doesn't look like this one, but you do have to be prepared when you find one.

It's as much about the winner "finding" its' level as it is the rest of the field "not being able" to find theirs.[emphasis added.]

This is an example of the reason I like low level races. You don't find this type of race at the high end races. Low level races offer many more opportunities."

Apologize for letting this run on, but I thought it was a great example to learn with and enjoy.

Thanks FTL
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