Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 10-29-2014, 07:56 PM

In the last two BC's, there were 6 turf races per year. In each year the Euros won the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf and last year they won the F&M turf. So 5 wins total in two years.

If you use the Trackmaster version of New Pace (the non adjusted paceline version) the Euro winner was either L1 or L2 Late horse in each of these five races. There were two cold exactas in the top two Late which involved Euros only.

BTW when using NP I use the two best Late numbers, not necessarily the ones where the program shows a 1 and 2 choice. Especially with the Juveniles.

This year's NP Euro turf info;

10/31 - SA 6: #4 (Commenorative) and #7 (War Envoy) are L1 and L2, BUT, #5 (Hootenanny) is E2, but its late number is 3 points higher than either of the NP Late horses. Very interesting. Hootenanny has raced on both continents, gets its rating from the European races. When you use adjusted times from early in the year it does not fare so well. I'd play all three here.

10/31 - SA 8: #2 (Osaila) and #14 (Qualify)/#13 (Prize Exhibit). these last two are tied for L2. The #3 (Sunset Glow) is E1 based on its Euro racing; when you use adjusted SRs its E2, but the segments screen shows it 0-0-0 off a 7 furlong poly line (only 2 available)

11/01 - SA 5: #6 (Fiesolana) and #3 (Dank) are L1 and L2, a close third is #5 (Secret Gesture)

Other turf races with Euros

11/01 - SA 9: #7 (Flintshire), #11 (Chicquita) are L1 and L2; the 3rd and 4th L horses are also Euros #1 (Telescope) and #8 (Magician who has been scratched.) Magician in the Turf has scratched. But the top three L horses in the Turf (7-11-1) by New Pace are rated 126/124/123 then a significant gap to lower numbers.

11/-1 - SA 11: #9 (Anodin) and #5 (Toronado) are L1 and L2

Turf sprint note:
I would not use the NP info for the turf sprint. First of all, any turf race down the hill at SA needs an added seven points of adjusted speed rating to equal other tracks' turf sprints. Usually an 82 or 83 down the hill equates to an 89 or 90 from any other turf sprint location. So with that said, there are only 5 races per year rateable via NP, so five out of ten races with the winner in the top two aint too bad (short sample notwithstanding.)

good luck this weekend,

10-29-2014, 07:56 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	European performance recently In the last two BC's, there were 6 turf races per year. In each year the Euros won the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf and last year they won the F&M turf. So 5 wins total in two years. If you use the Trackmaster version of New Pace (the non adjusted paceline version) the Euro winner was either L1 or L2 Late horse in each of these five races. There were two cold exactas in the top two Late which involved Euros only. BTW when using NP I use the two best Late numbers, not necessarily the ones where the program shows a 1 and 2 choice. Especially with the Juveniles. This year's NP Euro turf info; 10/31 - SA 6: #4 (Commenorative) and #7 (War Envoy) are L1 and L2, BUT, #5 (Hootenanny) is E2, but its late number is 3 points higher than either of the NP Late horses. Very interesting. Hootenanny has raced on both continents, gets its rating from the European races. When you use adjusted times from early in the year it does not fare so well. I'd play all three here. 10/31 - SA 8: #2 (Osaila) and #14 (Qualify)/#13 (Prize Exhibit). these last two are tied for L2. The #3 (Sunset Glow) is E1 based on its Euro racing; when you use adjusted SRs its E2, but the segments screen shows it 0-0-0 off a 7 furlong poly line (only 2 available) 11/01 - SA 5: #6 (Fiesolana) and #3 (Dank) are L1 and L2, a close third is #5 (Secret Gesture) Other turf races with Euros 11/01 - SA 9: #7 (Flintshire), #11 (Chicquita) are L1 and L2; the 3rd and 4th L horses are also Euros #1 (Telescope) and #8 (Magician who has been scratched.) Magician in the Turf has scratched. But the top three L horses in the Turf (7-11-1) by New Pace are rated 126/124/123 then a significant gap to lower numbers. 11/-1 - SA 11: #9 (Anodin) and #5 (Toronado) are L1 and L2 Turf sprint note: I would not use the NP info for the turf sprint. First of all, any turf race down the hill at SA needs an added seven points of adjusted speed rating to equal other tracks' turf sprints. Usually an 82 or 83 down the hill equates to an 89 or 90 from any other turf sprint location. So with that said, there are only 5 races per year rateable via NP, so five out of ten races with the winner in the top two aint too bad (short sample notwithstanding.) good luck this weekend, Last edited by Bill Lyster; 10-29-2014 at 08:00 PM.