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Valid questions:
After your analysis a valid question that should always be asked is; Who is the only horse that can beat my top pick? Bill I think you made the correct bet and to risk more in a race with many unknown factors over time isn't worth the risk verses the reward.
Also; What is the best way to bet this race to make a profit? Money management tends to get ignored in this game while it plays a significant roll to success or failure. Determining the amount to bet based on the probability and analysis of your handicapping, and how risky the race is a huge factor for success. So Bill you made a good bet considering the complexity of this race.
I actually lost a few bucks on this race. I made the correct call on the DD but only made $6, if one of my other two won there would have been a nice profit. I also played the correct DD as my analysis said the 9th race was more predicable with less unknown factors. The favorite won but many lose DD and P 3 etc. by leaving out the best horse.
I ended up losing a few bucks on this race because I also played small EX's with some unknown factors with the 5 horse. I didn't go overboard with them but the risk reward was worth it, a lot for a little. The # 1 went off at about 30-1 and the 10 was over bet and had the 4 or 7 won or placed the payoffs were nice. So a few bucks was OK as that's the same way I got that $558 EX, the other day, by playing the best horse and asking who is the only horse that can beat it and how can I make $ out of this situation. Look at EX. payoffs and eliminate low paying EX, E.g., $8,10 & $12. The risk reward just isn't there.
I hope these two big questions up your game.
Mitch44
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