Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

The Pook · 01-15-2019, 04:21 PM

My first full time year doing the Matchup has been good. It took a few years to get it down to something I could live with, but after experimenting up to including 2017 I took the leap and bet full-time for 2018.

I paid no mind to odds. ML or at the gate. I bet it and forget it. Took a couple of hours, found the horses, and pre bet the ones of interest. Didn't sweat about when to pull the trigger or on what odds. Tracking odds has its own level of anxiety. I did however record the odds at the gate after which my betting site notes on the Betting Intervals page.

I bet one horse per race to win that seemed a lock, as advocated in The HatCheck. I found 792 plays over a year of about 40 weeks. About 4 plays a day from all tracks running mostly in the afternoon and mostly on weekdays.

These plays hit 29% of the time for an ROI of 30%. No concern for odds. I remember whale bettor Ernie Dahlman once said that you can't tell what the odds are going to be anyway. His bets would change the odds noticeably. In these times with simulcast online betting, quite frequently odds will be more than halved as the horses are on the backstretch. Many was the time that a 4.5-1 at the gate runner would become a 1.8-1 backstretch runner. Ernie or no Ernie. Hard to get a price.

Looking back at gate load odds I discovered for me a 2.5-1 threshold. Under 2.5-1 my hit rate was 42% with a -10% ROI. Over 2-1 my hit rate dropped to 21% but with a 55% ROI. Not bad. But you have to be present at every post to make or cancel bets that don't meet criteria. Also there is a lot less action when demanding minimum odds. It becomes a lifestyle thing.

Yes it makes financial sense to forget lower odds horses. But from my records not absolutely necessary.

I have decided to try following gate odds for 2019 with a minimum 2.5-1 anyway. The higher ROI has an allure. I may not like it. To date I have an odorous -78% ROI hitting 2/31. A lot of seconds, so things will turn around eventually.

In conclusion I realize that most on this site advocate value and minimum odds. A few threads have been written with mathematical formulas determining whether a single or two horse or dutch bet is worth it. I get it but I question whether overall it is worth sweating over.

Sincerely,
Pook

01-15-2019, 04:21 PM	#1
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,535	Is tracking odds worth the trouble? My first full time year doing the Matchup has been good. It took a few years to get it down to something I could live with, but after experimenting up to including 2017 I took the leap and bet full-time for 2018. I paid no mind to odds. ML or at the gate. I bet it and forget it. Took a couple of hours, found the horses, and pre bet the ones of interest. Didn't sweat about when to pull the trigger or on what odds. Tracking odds has its own level of anxiety. I did however record the odds at the gate after which my betting site notes on the Betting Intervals page. I bet one horse per race to win that seemed a lock, as advocated in The HatCheck. I found 792 plays over a year of about 40 weeks. About 4 plays a day from all tracks running mostly in the afternoon and mostly on weekdays. These plays hit 29% of the time for an ROI of 30%. No concern for odds. I remember whale bettor Ernie Dahlman once said that you can't tell what the odds are going to be anyway. His bets would change the odds noticeably. In these times with simulcast online betting, quite frequently odds will be more than halved as the horses are on the backstretch. Many was the time that a 4.5-1 at the gate runner would become a 1.8-1 backstretch runner. Ernie or no Ernie. Hard to get a price. Looking back at gate load odds I discovered for me a 2.5-1 threshold. Under 2.5-1 my hit rate was 42% with a -10% ROI. Over 2-1 my hit rate dropped to 21% but with a 55% ROI. Not bad. But you have to be present at every post to make or cancel bets that don't meet criteria. Also there is a lot less action when demanding minimum odds. It becomes a lifestyle thing. Yes it makes financial sense to forget lower odds horses. But from my records not absolutely necessary. I have decided to try following gate odds for 2019 with a minimum 2.5-1 anyway. The higher ROI has an allure. I may not like it. To date I have an odorous -78% ROI hitting 2/31. A lot of seconds, so things will turn around eventually. In conclusion I realize that most on this site advocate value and minimum odds. A few threads have been written with mathematical formulas determining whether a single or two horse or dutch bet is worth it. I get it but I question whether overall it is worth sweating over. Sincerely, Pook