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Old 08-30-2014, 06:06 PM   #12
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
form

My thoughts ...

Technically Its a plus within a zero.. But it is a powerful
positive form indicator and a great spot play

First this is from the pace line manual.

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Here is a clean copy of La Reine's Wager pp's
Line 1 is Reines Wagers first try at a two turn route. Both of the Laurel
8 furlong races are 1 turn routes beside missing lots of time throughout her career she has been sprinting.

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Line 1 is its first 2 turn route. LaReine is a EP. She can pass horses.

She usually breaks well. In its last 5 sprints its beaten lengths at the second call are a up close 3.5, 3.6, 2, 2. and 2.1

Now about line 1. They stretch her out to 1 mile ( two turns at Parx )
but she has no experience.

The horse is in post 1 BUT look at its comment "Broke Slow"

What does Tom Brohamer say about trouble lines

"the horse still must show something "

It breaks slow, but rushes up and passes 5 horses
and gets within 1/2 a length of the leader.
Here is the thing. Besides the traffic it faced by breaking slow It does this going into and through the first turn !! by the first call its a contender.

It used too much energy early because its inexperience routing,
So it fades badly. RDSS or any Sartin program will not rate this line well because of the bad 3rd fraction.

However this is a (+) paceline

Here is a diagram of Parx racetrack. I have marked where the first and second call are and where La Reine was at those calls.
Also look how soon the first turn comes up in a mile race.
So LaRiene had all of out side horses coming over as best they could as to not get hung out wide.

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There are other positives
This trouble start was 8 days after its return form a layoff
Each race since the layoff, they are going longer. After the bad finish they come back at the same class CL7.5 N3-L but now the go to 8.3 furlongs.

On its next race it was in post 4 at the same class
and they come right back in 3 weeks. This race was in Feb so 3 weeks
is pretty good return with inclement weather and cancellations these low level claiming races fill up fast.

Here is the chart of the last line race

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anyway in its next race La Reine was in post 4. It had very little pressure to its inside and won and paid $34.60

Thanks
Bill
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