Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 12-31-2016, 05:14 PM

This is a rather nebulous area. It's the kind of thing that you hope you are right 50% of the time. It's a coin flip!
What you can do is keep records yourself. Note how shippers run at the track you play. Draw your own conclusions and over time you will be right a hell of alot more than 50%.
Best practice is not to use a track class adjustment with young lightly raced horses. The connections will rarely spend the money to ship on a lark. Generally, they are shipping because they feel they can get a major share of a bigger purse. Small barns with mediocre stock are not going to pick up and move to another track with larger purses if they can't make money. So shipping the occasional younger horse is most likely a one race experiment.

Older horses that tend to run consistently at one track or on a circuit of lower class tracks will rarely be competitive if they are not dominating in there current surroundings. Beware of Early horses and up close Pressers because they can seldom handle the faster paces at the better tracks.

Always remember, there is no MAGIC number. Attempts to turn racing into a chemistry problem are doomed to failure. What you can rely on in racing is a "Preponderance of Evidence". That's 1st person evidence, that's know thy track" evidence. Reliance on mass produced data is inconsistent at best and its inherent flaws will cost you money.
Good Luck!

12-31-2016, 05:14 PM	#7
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Class Track Adjustments This is a rather nebulous area. It's the kind of thing that you hope you are right 50% of the time. It's a coin flip! What you can do is keep records yourself. Note how shippers run at the track you play. Draw your own conclusions and over time you will be right a hell of alot more than 50%. Best practice is not to use a track class adjustment with young lightly raced horses. The connections will rarely spend the money to ship on a lark. Generally, they are shipping because they feel they can get a major share of a bigger purse. Small barns with mediocre stock are not going to pick up and move to another track with larger purses if they can't make money. So shipping the occasional younger horse is most likely a one race experiment. Older horses that tend to run consistently at one track or on a circuit of lower class tracks will rarely be competitive if they are not dominating in there current surroundings. Beware of Early horses and up close Pressers because they can seldom handle the faster paces at the better tracks. Always remember, there is no MAGIC number. Attempts to turn racing into a chemistry problem are doomed to failure. What you can rely on in racing is a "Preponderance of Evidence". That's 1st person evidence, that's know thy track" evidence. Reliance on mass produced data is inconsistent at best and its inherent flaws will cost you money. Good Luck!