#5 to WIN
As a "Match Up" rookie, I'm clueless on a projected pace. (I'm also clueless on Aqueduct's Inner Dirt, as I fly south in the winter with my play, like a handicapping snowbird.) I think the leader will run 12-second furlongs for awhile, then backup some, maybe 24/48/1:13. I think the leader will be #5 and with a little luck, he might hold on. Besides, I like his name.
mick