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Old 11-12-2016, 11:07 AM   #5
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
MVR7

I won't be around for scratches and odds so I will post now.

MVR has been killing me since it opened a few weeks ago. Yet TDN has been incredibly successful this year. Its the same horse colony basically. If you can put up with the chalk, chalk, chalk, bomb, chalk, chalk, chalk cycle that permeates these small tracks there are profits to be made. My MVR sample size is much smaller than TDN so I figure something should kick in sooner or later. So I will either continue to torture myself here ....or maybe?

Here goes. Derived a 22+/45+ pace from three matching earlies (3,5,11). The 11 has the FPLR but is coming from outside so I think it makes it contentious on the front end. If he wasn't so far out he could win as a dominant early. This is the main point of decision in this race for me. So OTE. My models on this track show that it is kind of a crap shoot at this distance as to what is predictive as far as corollaries go. If any of these early horses are scratched it will probably screw this all up.

Came up with 1,7,8,9,10 as the ones that can handle that pace from off. Of these the 8,9 should be best positioned to inherit the lead. Hopefully they are decent odds and that the race is not scratched up.

8,9 WIN
Good Luck
Pook

Last edited by The Pook; 11-12-2016 at 11:37 AM.
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