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I presume you are talking about keeping records by track of what tier "long shots" are winning from. Why would one particular tier contain an inordinate amount of long shots? I am not saying it does not occur, but why?
Say for the sake of argument say long shots seem to win over the last couple of weeks from Tier 3 at PHA and Tier 4 from GP. Does that mean when a long shot appears from that tier it should automatically be bet? What confidence level would a person need to make such a leap? Is there any reason to think it should continue?
I would think you would want to see long shots listed in the top 2 or 3 horses on BL/BL outrun their odds with some consistency to feel good about how you are using the software and selecting pace lines.
For example if I am betting 2 horses to win and race comes up
Tier 1 6/1
Tier 1 12/1
Tier 3 15/1
I would have to have a real solid reason to skip one of the horses in Tier 1 to bet the horse in Tier 3 just because a few long shots have won in Tier 3 over the last month.
Jim
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