Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Another paceless race

Bill Lyster · 01-30-2014, 01:19 PM

Bill:

Thanks for the chart. I was going to put it up a little later after, hopefully after some commentary.

I agreed with your pace set up pretty much and also the form issues. I could not see any of the early types holding up in this race, so I was pretty sure it was OTE. I put the race up because I am trying to find more paceless races or races that devolve into relatively paceless events to understand the internal dynamics in those types of races.

Notice that in the faster 7 furlong race that the one ran its positions were 8-8-5-5; in the 6.5 race prior to that it ran 8-8-5-2. It had never run against this slow of a projected pace, so its position "might" be expected to improve, similar to how the 4, 5 and 9 did when compared to their positioning in faster races and races at or near today's pace. I am not saying that its a universal fact that all would run closer to the lead, but its a probable assumption. But when you look at the running styles of the power races run by each horse there appeared to be only two who had run in mid pack, so they would be closest to the lead and would challenge the other horses to go by them using perhaps more energy to gain both positions and lengths than they were capable of, or had shown in the past.

If you looked at the race from a back class POV the 1 was a standout. But like I said, its rare to see a horse with two "van offs" even though the horse ran well next out! I guess I could have downgraded the van off if I noted the return in less than 30 days. Really conflicting info here. If you came down on the right side of things this could have been a profitable race.

But I think I learned something from this race and it goes in the memory bank for future use (I hope). I need lots more learning experiences, phew!! Boy-howdy!!

01-30-2014, 01:19 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Bill: Thanks for the chart. I was going to put it up a little later after, hopefully after some commentary. I agreed with your pace set up pretty much and also the form issues. I could not see any of the early types holding up in this race, so I was pretty sure it was OTE. I put the race up because I am trying to find more paceless races or races that devolve into relatively paceless events to understand the internal dynamics in those types of races. Notice that in the faster 7 furlong race that the one ran its positions were 8-8-5-5; in the 6.5 race prior to that it ran 8-8-5-2. It had never run against this slow of a projected pace, so its position "might" be expected to improve, similar to how the 4, 5 and 9 did when compared to their positioning in faster races and races at or near today's pace. I am not saying that its a universal fact that all would run closer to the lead, but its a probable assumption. But when you look at the running styles of the power races run by each horse there appeared to be only two who had run in mid pack, so they would be closest to the lead and would challenge the other horses to go by them using perhaps more energy to gain both positions and lengths than they were capable of, or had shown in the past. If you looked at the race from a back class POV the 1 was a standout. But like I said, its rare to see a horse with two "van offs" even though the horse ran well next out! I guess I could have downgraded the van off if I noted the return in less than 30 days. Really conflicting info here. If you came down on the right side of things this could have been a profitable race. But I think I learned something from this race and it goes in the memory bank for future use (I hope). I need lots more learning experiences, phew!! Boy-howdy!!