Bill V asked me to comment on this race if I was feeling up to it, so I’m taking a few minutes to do exactly that.
For those of you that have read my writings here “
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11449”, you know the first thing I do when looking at a race
is eliminate the most probable losers. That means horses with a Morning Line of 20/1 or greater are eliminated. This is not to say that these horses never win. In fact, they do win about once in twenty races,
IF you are fortunate enough to isolate that one winner. Good Luck!
The other thing I eliminate are horses that have not raced in the last ninety days. Again, this is not to say these horses never win. In fact, they do win once in twenty races, so again, you need to be fortunate enough to isolate that horse.
I will also remind everyone that I use the old school methodology of using the last line if it is a “+” or “(+)” race. If it is not and there is no legitimate excuse for the bad performance, the horse is eliminated.
I guess I should also remind everyone that I handicap to find the ONE horse I believe will win the race, not choose from among five contenders with two horses at high odds. In fact, in today’s horse racing world there are many, many races that only have five or six horse fields. Does that mean the entire field are contenders?
With all of that in mind, I’ll run down the horses in the race.
1 – NO LINE. Last line is a poor race with no excuse
2 – LAST LINE. Last line is a “(+)” race
3 – NO LINE. Last race is a poor line and I see no legitimate excuse for it.
4 – NO LINE. In the last ninety days the horse shows only a sprint race and the only route race it has had was 205 days ago.
5 – NO LINE. Last race is a poor performance with no legitimate excuse and even if there was, the second line back is no better.
6 – I’ll come back to this horse.
7 – NO LINE. This horse has a ML of 30/1 and was eliminated from the outset.
Ok, before I go to the #6 horse I have a word about the conditions of this race. They are “FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON 2 RACES”.
Now, the primary condition is for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred. The racing secretary then adds OR which have never won two races. The reason for the add on is so the race will fill with enough horses for the race to run, otherwise the race would be canceled. The better horses in this condition are the horses with more than one win. Why? Horses with just one win have only beat a field of maidens.
Now, the #6 would not get a line from me because its’ only route race is 99 days ago. So at this point I would have just one horse/contender with a line. Not very encouraging. In looking at the #6 horse its’ lifetime record is 3 wins and 3 seconds from 7 starts. Nice record. In addition, it has 4 lifetime races on a fast track. It won 3 or those races and ran second in the other. Again, nice record. Is there a horse in the race with a better record? NO! The #6 horse is going off at 3/5. Do you want to bet against it? I don’t. Do you want to bet on it? I don’t. As it turned out, this horse won and the only horse I gave a line to ran second.
That takes care of my comments on the race. Thanks for reading them.