Quote:
Originally Posted by trotman
How can anyone pick the winner 3 weeks out with this underachieving lot. Yes Orb 4 wins in a row going in and Pletcher's horse undefeated, IMO they have shown nothing. Wait til the morning of to form an opinion because these 3 weeks will be the longest 3 weeks. I posted to Watchmakers story on DRF and it was trashed though I said nothing disrespectful, I only pointed to what a blowhard he really is and they didn't like it. Tip of the century when Watchmaker or Serling speak go the other way, and you can take that to the bank.
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You see, there are others who take a whole different approach towards dissecting the Derby and its wagering opportunities due to the extremely super-large mutuel pool.
One does not cram or study the night before for a final exam; nor to dissect a large contentious 20 horse field the morning of the big race. If one wants to approach the game as those who walk into the track admission gate; then buy their Daily Racing Form and take a quick glance of the past performances twenty minutes or so before each race to analyze and to make their wagering decisions; then "May Your Numbers Increase".
There are others who take this game seriously; and they don't even use Sartin programs ..
Here is a post from another board: I highly respect this poster as I do with For the Lead and Bill V. for their approach to this stochastic endeavor and their message posts:
Derby Post Mortem (1250 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2011 10:50AM
I private messaged my thoughts on the Derby to a few people, so I'm not red boarding. Guess I'm just venting. But talk about just missing.
I used AAA and SHAK as my keys.
I made AK, DI, POF & MI my A horses.
NEH, SOL, MMM & STAY were B's.
I played $500 Oaks/Derby Doubles of JV/AK and SHAK. I was also going to play a JV/AAA double but took a pass because of the whole rail thing and what the will pays looked like. In any case I missed when JV came up empty at the top of the lane.
As far as the Derby goes, had SHAK and AAA as my keys. Had SHAK held on for 3rd I had a $200 Tri and a $2 Super. Don't know how much $ I would have taken down. I'm thinking $500k or so.
Officially I missed by 3/4 of a length, and I think i'm still drunk from last night.