Hello Charlie
100% what I am looking for. I started to notice this when I was playing parlay tickets at Santa Anita. I was part of a group so we had so big tickets going.
I am mostly a listener in groups, I started to make notes about what was offered while we were constructing tickets,
It seemed that when the feeling about selections was
"He is a lock" and "He will win but not pay much" Those types never let us down to just at least show - We generally played wps or ps.
The ones that killed us were the " he should get up" types
Since I started my "place to be" exercise I have focused mainly on the morning line favorites, If they 100% fit FTL's guidelines and are bet below their morning line, they are my bets. I am betting on winners that happen to place.
It is working so well, and it helps me focus when I wagercap and decide
to "hide" the favorite
in my normal betting.