[Mark]

GL45,
We all have to find a successful method. That said this was a very unusual race. Maybe 2% of the races run in this country fall into this category. It presents a wealth of challenges and problems to the handicapper.
What made it so special is that this type of race is normally filled with lightly raced horses on the way up to Stakes company. Yet their were horses in the field that didn't fit that mold. The #4 was the perfect example. A highly regarded 3 year old who ran 3rd in a Kentucky Derby prep over two years ago. Who had a couple of lengthy layoffs. The #6 out of California also a 5 year old. I wouldn't have thought much about him if I hadn't seen his sprint prep off the 408 day layoff and the subsequent turf route. This is classical preparation for bigger and better things.
What caught my attention initially with the #4 was the GP race but as I worked my way up his pps, I saw the prep race and then the huge effort in a graded race loss by a nose. The first race off his layoff wasn't all that much but then BOOM he runs that second race top.
Everything has to be in context. If this were a $10,000 claimer N3-L I probably wouldn't have given it as much emphasis. But look at the trainers in this race. This is a who's who in American Training. These guys don't train claimers and they work for big breeders and buy very expensive stock. The race conditions, the trainers, a spring race at KEE all tell me these are good horses, some maybe top class.
If you are to look at their best TPRs, you also have to look at where and how they were earned. A 180 CPR on turf is not going to impress me unless there are similar ratings on dirt. Bill mentions that everyone had layoffs and 180 CPRs, I want this race because you can smell money. A lot of handicappers today just give up or cut back their bets or bet the best current form horse or the best of the last 3 races. And that is why there is money to be made.
Many things can give you an insight into a race. Most are not number related. Note for instance, that neither the #4 or #6 have been gelded. Note the number of homebreds. And again the trainers. The #4 has some physical problems it is apparent due to the layoffs but if the connections didn't have a high opinion of the horse why not drop him and get rid of him. How many claimers are in these guys barns: Few if any. If he was just a horse why not geld him, he would be much more manageable. No, these older horses running in a race designed for up and coming new 4 year olds are well bred horses who with a little luck will find their way into the breeding shed not in Kentucky but maybe Minnesota or New Mexico. So in my view you can't eliminate any horse from this field without a thorough evaluation. And in the process you will find the pattern on the #4 and see the blazing 6.5f comeback race on a slightly slow surface at SA on the #6. You see that race and immediately compare it to all the other horses sprint races. Now one can come close to him. Yet he has route speed and his best races have been on the turf. So there is no fear of him just being a sprinter. And he is not head strong and can run off the pace. He also had that one dirt line that made him competitive pace-wise today. BINGO I found my horse. Well, he got beat, maybe he was a little short as he made the lead at the Stretch Call or most likely the #4 is just a better more talented animal and on his day as shown by his pps, early in his new form cycle he runs a barn burner.
In every race you have to do your best to project today's pace. You have to find the horses that have been able to compete successfully against that pace somewhere in their pps. If the line is deep, you have to make your best guess after a thorough evaluation whether it is repeatable today. Previous patterns can be helpful. Class is important. Final time to me is greatly over emphasized because it is so hard to determine the circumstances of that particular race. Finishes are more important. The Doc used to talk about horses that won in apparently slow time. He used to instruct that you should always use any horse that had over an 80 DRF speed rating. Theses horse pay good money because they are discounted by most software, but the fact of the matter is that the horse won his race. Does he meet today's race variegation?
There are no short cuts.
The first thing I do in every race is using the last line, check the number of shippers and the spread in the variants from high to low. Because I start handicapping RAW, this gives me a good idea of the fast horses when I look at the Segment screen first fraction illustration. Check the leaders out individually and determine if that 1st fraction was aberrant or real. If you have an SP as designated by the program with the first fraction lead then that is not realistic. You want to find the fastest first fraction on an Early or EP at today's distance structure. Now you have a initial projected first fraction and you can go through the horses one by one and assign them Running styles based on that highlighted first fraction on the Original screen. As I do this horses who finish up the track when facing this fraction are easily eliminated. But I am not picking pacelines yet. The first fraction is the least effected by surface speed. I have read here that Trackmaster pps are adjusted for Run-Up distance although working them RAW I kind of doubt it. But I have a solid basis to begin my work.
Then I decide if I am going to go to a 100% DTV and ITV configuration so that I have a better idea of the latter part of the race. I have confidence in the 2nd calls in TPR and final time using the 100% DTV and ITV. The first fraction is useless in this mode. It is so distorted by the application of the final time adjustment that it is unusable. So you can see which of your horses that were close in the first fraction analysis who will be there at the 2nd call. Now you can project your second call. The whole Idea here is to determine which way the race will run, Early or OTE. Once you have been able to do this, throw all the other side out. Now you are working with a projected pace, the True contenders by variegation and as long as you remember Jim Bradshaw's edict: "Bet the horse closest to the leader, factoring in the pace of the race", you should have the winner in your top two.
So goes the theory. In practice if you practice you will learn things that make the process more reliable. You can use Bradshaw's Voodoo to separate the final contenders. Good Luck!!