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Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
This is good info, and most likely the way it will turn out, after horse's basketball is king down there, (or vice versa), because we Floridians know they do not know how to play football yet, lol. Wait, Florida has back to back Championships in Basketball too.
Patrick
PS: With the main pre-races done, who do you think is the likely Favorite and why, and maybe who could be your sleeper this, anything Calvin rides ???
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The likely morning line favorite will be Verrazano. Imho, he will be about 4 to 1 odds in a twenty horse field in a Super Huge mutuel field. Your second choice will be the Florida Derby winner, Orb.
Normally, Normandy Invasion should be about 10 to one or even 15 to one will be this year's "Wise Guy" horse. Half the grandstand at Aqueduct and on simulcast television saw that Normandy Invasion flew by Verrazano after a couple of jumps after the finish line.
Verrazano is undefeated and has some impressive lines in its past performances and is trained by Todd Pletcher. This one will be listed as your morning-line favorite.
We haven't got the results of the Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass Stakes yet, to make a real complete evaluation of the Derby field. I will question the result of the Blue Grass because it will be run on synthetics which has a history of being favorable to turf runners or those horses with a strong preference for this quirky surface.
As far as evaluating Verrazano using the methodology, this one has a couple of chinks in his armor. This one does not have the best sustained line nor does he have the highest total energy from his pacelines depending on how one chooses the pacelines. His hidden energy rankings are deficient to quite a few contenders.
The pace horse in this year's running will be Governor Charlie trained by Bob Baffert who broke the track record at the Sunland Derby distance. But there were about 3 or 4 track records on this "souped up" racetrack on Sunland Derby Day in New Mexico. On raw fractions, this one looks like a main contender on paper.
Here is the result chart of the Sunland Derby:
Sunland Oaks:
sprint stakes at 6.5 F
6F maiden race: ticks off the distance track record
As you can see, it was a very fast track.
Good skills
