The Big Hit
Each year in February, my sons and I along with some friends, take a 3-5 day trip to Las Vegas. We stay at Bally’s where I spend most of my time in the Race Book and they run around town. Always gathering at the Race Book because that is where Dad is. I am a recreational handicapper. Outside of this trip, I handicap and play 6-8 weekends a year. RDSS provides all the tools I need to see the race. What is so interesting to me is that there are enough tools in RDSS so that each of us can develop his/her own process which helps each see and project what should happen in the race. When I am at Bally’s in February, I play a ton of races during those few days. Probably too many too quickly, but all in fun. Every so often a race comes along like the one you are about to review. The race was the 9th at Oaklawn on February 22. It was indeed a big hit.
First you need to understand how I approach the races. I do better over time if I stick with the following process. I believe that Running Style is as important as times in most cases. Secondly, I find that I do better when I use the “Best of the Last 3 Surface and Distance”. I will go back to take a look at the horse even if the best of his last 3 surface and distance takes me down into the chart a bit. Once I am sure that I have the running style right and the lines I want, I go immediately to the Segments screen. I remember Jim Bradshaw saying, ”The first fraction is when the horses get in position to win.” I eliminate contenders for win using the first fraction line up on the segments screen, especially in Sprints. With routes one needs to look at the second call a bit more. For those of you who want to see the PPs of the runners, I will post them at the end of the article.
Lines all selected and it looks like we have all Pressers and Sustained. The closest to an early horse is the 9. He set the pace once. No Early so we are looking for the horse that can run the closest to the fastest pace.
We are at 6 furlongs so we take out anyone who is not in the top 5 first fractions. Notice the 10 horse who looks to do well late. With that pattern he is definitely a threat to hit the board. Most of the time I would include him in my bet, primarily in the place and show holes. Today I decided not to use him and that probably was a mistake. Looking back I probably should have used him instead of the 7. He ran better than the 7 and was more of a threat for the board. The 7 (favorite) is also interesting as he looks to be the furthest back of all the contenders. He will really have to motor to get to the win or even the board. The 7 finished dead last. He just got too far back.
Based on these two screens, it looks to me like the 3 and the 5 or the 3 and the 9 are the two horses to play for win. I chose to use the 3,9 as my win choices. With odds this high on my win horses I did not construct my usual bet for the tri ie 3,9/3,9,5,7,4/3,9,5,7,4 (which also would have won) but chose instead to do a $.50 tri box with all 5 for $30. Because my win choices were high I also put in a 3,4,9 $1 tri box and 3,4,9 $2 exacta box just in the event the 3 longshots came in together. They did and I cashed all my tickets. I use the 3 long shot box approach when I have two winners with the odds that I have here. I hope that I am being clear.
I finalze my bet by checking the Velocity screen and it supports my decision to use 3,9. Note the 4 is also close at the 2nd call, backup that 4 can hit the board.
Final check on who appears to overcome the fastest pace. 3 and 9 again. I am solid in my bet.