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Revisions Made based on updated Euro Info - Edits made in original text
The 1 and 11 look to run early, with the 12 pressing. The 11 could not hold a lead when running a 146.3 mile - won't win today.
1 has pressed 221 and 222 and best mile time is 135.8. Looks to get first run. The 12 is a pretty stout presser. 4 lines back ran a mile in 135.90 - racehorse time anywhere.
The next level of pressers I think are going to be the 5 and 6; they pressed the pace is Paris last out and finished within a neck of each other. their adjust mile time is 136.94 each!
One of the strongest closers is the 8. I interpreted the chart from its last race where it closed 11-10-3 to a final time of 145.1 over 9 furlongs. My interpolation indicates a 34 second closing time from 3/4 to finish. The leaders time at the mile equates to 132.7 so this one ran about 133 and change, by far the fastest in this field. There were no internal fractions shown for this race, but my interpolation put the 6f time a little under 111; 3 back at Monmouth she closed off a 111 and went by the mile in about 135.4 which would still make her pretty good here.
A lot of money may go on 1, Stacelita, but I think this is one lucky horse. Best mile time is about 137.7 and it caught turf courses in Chicago and NY where the 6f time in one race was 115.5 and a mile time in NY of 146.3. Just like Europe usually is - and she won handily both times, some of which are in this field and all of whom should be eliminated.
The 5 and 6 are 7/2 and 9/2, the 1 is 8/1, the 12 is 10/1 and the 8 is 30/1
1- 135.8 running 2nd; 3 time group 1 winner
5- 136.94 just off lead;
6- 136.94 vs 5 and just a little faster earlier, but line 6 converts to 134.7
8- 133.1 from a closer; or 135.4
12-135.9 beating Midday by 6 in 2nd line back; 4 time Group 1 winner
From looking at some of the Euro times this year it looks like at times they had turf courses close to what Americans see every day.
My two picks are the 6 and 12, but with the odds I'd box them with the 8, 5 and 1 and try to get a nice trifecta price or more.
Some place and show on 8 for sure if odds dictate.
11/5, race 3 Mile and 3/4 MarathonThe Hats Marathon method says to calculate the adjusted mile time and keep note of positions at the mile call. A slight variation of that because of the distance of this race might be to assess running position and time at the mile and a quarter mark, since this is the last timed call in 12 furlong races.
1-Gr 2 horse 2-2-4, 137.9, also ran 1-1-1 in 137.1/202.9
2-Alw horse 2-2-1, 138.6, 204.7
3-Gr 2 horse, no position info; best 203.4
4-Stk 60, 4-3-1 and 3-3-4, best 137.0/202.8
5-Gr 1, 7-6-4, but slow 205.8 recently, but best is 135.6
6-Gr 2 ultra marathon specialist - no reasonable lines even with updated info
7-No
8-NW2X, 6-6-4, 137.5/203.3
9-Gr 2 placed, but best is 3-3-2 effort and 204.8
10-Gr 3 x 2 - who runs 5-5-3 and 5-5-2, with best 136.1/201.7, won this race last year. Has closed in last two against much faster pace than I expect here.
Early pace by the 1 and 2, with 1 prevailing - I'd use the 49.7-113.9 as a set up; pressing by 4 and 10, with 10 the better of the two; Best closer is only G1 winner here Giant Oak.
My main three are 1-10-5 at 7/2-10/1-9/2
The 9 and 4 might be good enough for place/show consideration.
11/5-8th BC Turf at 12 F turf
Probably hardest race to gage with 5 european horses. The 1 and 2 have two tandems at 12 furlongs. My inclination is to lean to race 2 and take the 2 over the 1, but I cannot separate the two really.
The 6-7-9 from Europe and the 7 seems a reach; the 6 has not faltered over a distance, but lost to the 9 by 2.5 last out; the 9 was 2nd last year this race and won it the year before but these are only two races with times that you can back calc to a mile. Last race about 137.5 on the closest thing to a fast track in Europe that this horse has run on.
The best local horse looks like the 5 who has run 4-4-5 and 3-3-2, with a mile best of 136.1. Midday, the 9, did 136.2 two Breeders Cups ago.
Without a lot of confidence I like in no particular order 1-2-9 and the 5 in trifectas; and I will probably just watch this one.
Hope you all do well,
Bill
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