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Old 10-15-2016, 10:30 AM   #27
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Summary maiden info from DMR

I hid the rows of data to show the summary info. The 1st 34 races were won by FTS; the next 60 races had FTS entered, but none of them won; the last 30 races were maiden races without FTS.

FTS maidens with the SRW/HWL/SWG workout pattern won 7 races at average odds of over 15/1 (surprisingly 3 of the 7 were top five ML). There were 32 horses that had this combined workout pattern, so the win rate was 18.8% (right col labeled TED1)

Notice how winning FTS dominate the SW, GW, HWL, SAR and SWG workout categories relative to the other two types of races. See that well meant FTS have a Gate Work (GW) 38.2% of the time whereas winners of races that included losing FTS had none and 'experienced' maidens rarely had a gate work after their first or subsequent races.

The column labeled ML is for morning line odds; #R is ML rank. Winning FTS were in the top 5 ML 25 out of 34 times; in races with FTS that DID NOT WIN, the winning maiden was top 5 ML 57/60 races! In maiden races without FTS, the winner was top 5 ML 25/30 times.

Disclaimer: this is DMR this last summer. Your track might have different percentages or even some added workout designations that are profitable. Go find them and report back, PLEASE.
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Last edited by Bill Lyster; 10-15-2016 at 10:32 AM.
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