As we approached the 9th at GG on Sunday after a great 3 days of handicapping this nice turf race was offered. 3 Year olds going 8f on the turf for C12.5KN2-L.
Quickly reviewing each horse for Running Style I found this:
The 4th line just jumped off the page at me. Here was my projected pace for the race over today's surface, 1/2 furlong shorter. I think I have said numerous times that my favorite angle is 3rd start off a significant layoff. I had a horse that fit that bill and horse that will set the pace from the 2nd call home. So I quickly pulled POWER LINES from each of the other entrants and this is my Adjusted Screen:
The #7 off her POWER LINE has a clear advantage over all the other horses at the 2nd call. So using the POWER LINES for each horse shows the fastest early paces they have successfully competed against. Everyone is on equal footing. The sprinters stretching out may have some impact on the early pace but we can see they won't be around at the finish. I would say the first call would be 47.2 while the #7 flies to the lead in 1:11.7. Who can run with this horse? Most likely the actual pace will be much slower because there is no dedicated Early horse in the field, thereby saving the #7 tons of energy for later in the race. You can eliminate over half the field because they will just not be able to keep up even running a slower pace.
There are those that would have you believe that the Final Fraction is the ultra important in predicting the out come of a race. That is just not true. Sustained horses need the cooperation of the Early and Presser horses in order to win. Don't be fooled. At the head of the stretch every horse is decelerating. It is the difference in the rates of deceleration that give the appearance of the late runners accelerating. The Doc wrote and talked about this. Richie mentioned a comment by Jim Bradshaw, "You give these Sustained horses too much credit, Rich!" They are generally slow horses. That's why they run in the back of the pack!
I bet this horse pretty heavily for me and it was the end to a great weekend. The Giant game I attended at AT&T Park was fantastic and what a gorgeous park. I went to many games at Candlestick as a youngster and there is just no comparison.