Here’s my post mortem.
LINE 1 is a “+” line, therefore that is my line. This is the way I do it in every single race. The key word here is
“CONSISTENCY”.
For those who want to go shopping for a line after the fact, line 9 is your line . WHY?
Let’s look at the horse. You can see it in a post above.
It has 16 lifetime races.
In the 10 races we can see in the PP’s, it does NOT have a win.
Therefore, this horse won 3 races from its’ first 6 starts, with 1 second place finish. Not a bad start. But other than that, we have no idea what class level it ran at or anything else about those first six races.
What we do know is, the horse is eligible for a “NW4L” condition. Can we see any previous races at the NW4L condition? YES, lines 4 and 9. In both cases the horse ran early. In both cases the class level was $10,000. There is one other race were the horse ran early, line 3, vs. “OPEN” $10,000 claimers.
Today’s race is a NW4L condition at the $5,000 level. That is a 50% drop in claiming price from its’ other efforts at the NW4L condition.
So let’s look at the three races where the horse ran early.
Line 3 shows a track variant of -10 (fast)
Line 4 shows a track variant of 8(slow)
Line 9 shows a track variant of 1(slow)
Because the track was running fast in line 3, we naturally get faster times for the horse.
Because the track was running slow in line 4, we naturally get slower times doer the horse.
Because the track was running at about “par” in line 9 with only a 1 variant, there is little to no adjustments and the times it ran are the times it ran! Therefore I conclude that line 9 is the best line.
BUT, I have just one question. Is there anyone out there who is going to go to this effort prior to the race in order to come up with a line?
And before you can do any of this, you have to be as certain as you can be that the horse WILL, IN FACT, run early. Can you?
Check the result chart above. Early is how it ran today!
Now some words of wisdom from “DOC”.
And finally......
