Hey Bill,
In the spirit of learning...
I included the Segments screens for both line 3 and then line 1. Also, is the results chart.
I handicapped this race and passed.
I can see your point with everything you said.
However, I used the first line.
When looking at the segments screens, and thinking about the running of the race, it did not matter which line you used.
If you used line 1, the Computed Beaten Lengths (CBL) shows it would have been off the pace and closed strong in the final fraction.
If you used the 3rd line back, the it shows the horse would have been first at the 2C and still had that final fraction to make it a wager.
If you look at the 26 Oct race, it also ran a late% and almost took the money from off the pace.
What I think is interesting is that the horse went off at 0.7-1. That is no doubt due to the 3rd and 4th line positional calls and the 45 and change 2c PORs it was facing instead of being off the pace in its last two races.
However, when you look at the result chart, it was a length off of the pace against a 46 and 3 at the 2C. Visually looking at his 3rd and 9th lines, he fades down the stretch against faster paces. Yet it is the lack of Early Speed, needing a slower pace regardless of whether it is setting the pace or not and a third fraction that predicts it will win the money.
Jim