Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 04-05-2018, 09:56 AM

The Racing Post Ratings are out for the Dubai races.

Thunder Snow a 4 yr. old running for a 10 Million purse at about 1 1/4 and beat West Coast gets a rating of 123.

Mendelssohn a 3 yr. old running 1/16 shorter at about 1 3/16 was given 122.
This verifies the observation that Mendelssohn ran a monster of a race for a 3 yr. old. Additionally the jock didn't leave much in the tank but did let up shortly before the wire and he was looking around in the stretch and not concentrating, both of which could cause a 1 length difference from the 4 yr. old Thunder Snow.

One big reason turf horses don't perform on dirt is they don't like the kick back of dirt in their face. A turf horse that can get the lead or can position up front can avoid the kick back and run on dirt. Was this the reason he won or just got brave on the lead? I don't have his PP's to make further evaluations at this point and he still has to get to the derby by remaining sound and not missing a bet. Travelling isn't an issue as he has shipped and won before.

I'm not comfortable adjusting the race for both the variant and slight differences in of the fractions (about another 5 lengths). It would appear too much and Sartin began using 1/2 of adjustments before passing. Also that differences in each fraction helps to equalize the extra 1/16 that Thunder Snow ran. That , the ease up before wire & looking around places him as good as the older best in the world horses.

Last year I observer the Trakus for Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby and came to the same conclusions that he was a terrific horse and bet him in the derby for an upset. If you remember after the break he started bucking and standing up on his hind legs. Sooner or later the first foreign horse will win the Ky Derby, perhaps this is the year.

For a TPR I give Mendelssohn : Unadjusted 84 EPR 101.25 LPR & TPR of 185.25
6 length for variant Adjusted 88 EPR 103.25 LPR & TPR of 191.25
Notes: 1.These are my own ratings

2. The 3rd FR doesn't have any deceleration in it as the original in PMTR and phase one.

3. Last year I give Classic winner Gun Runner 91.50 EPR 85.75 LPR & TPR 187.25 at SA, his last 1/4 FR was 26.26, to adjust to 1/3/16, 26.26 is divided by 4
( 6.565 per 1/16) 6.565 is deducted to obtain 3rd FR.

4. Thunder Snow 76 EPR 113.50 LPR & TPR 186.50 adjusted to 1/3/16 and 6 lg. added for variant, 2/3rds to EPR & 1/3 to LPR.

Mitch44

04-05-2018, 09:56 AM	#10
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	The Racing Post Ratings are out for the Dubai races. Thunder Snow a 4 yr. old running for a 10 Million purse at about 1 1/4 and beat West Coast gets a rating of 123. Mendelssohn a 3 yr. old running 1/16 shorter at about 1 3/16 was given 122. This verifies the observation that Mendelssohn ran a monster of a race for a 3 yr. old. Additionally the jock didn't leave much in the tank but did let up shortly before the wire and he was looking around in the stretch and not concentrating, both of which could cause a 1 length difference from the 4 yr. old Thunder Snow. One big reason turf horses don't perform on dirt is they don't like the kick back of dirt in their face. A turf horse that can get the lead or can position up front can avoid the kick back and run on dirt. Was this the reason he won or just got brave on the lead? I don't have his PP's to make further evaluations at this point and he still has to get to the derby by remaining sound and not missing a bet. Travelling isn't an issue as he has shipped and won before. I'm not comfortable adjusting the race for both the variant and slight differences in of the fractions (about another 5 lengths). It would appear too much and Sartin began using 1/2 of adjustments before passing. Also that differences in each fraction helps to equalize the extra 1/16 that Thunder Snow ran. That , the ease up before wire & looking around places him as good as the older best in the world horses. Last year I observer the Trakus for Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby and came to the same conclusions that he was a terrific horse and bet him in the derby for an upset. If you remember after the break he started bucking and standing up on his hind legs. Sooner or later the first foreign horse will win the Ky Derby, perhaps this is the year. For a TPR I give Mendelssohn : Unadjusted 84 EPR 101.25 LPR & TPR of 185.25 6 length for variant Adjusted 88 EPR 103.25 LPR & TPR of 191.25 Notes: 1.These are my own ratings 2. The 3rd FR doesn't have any deceleration in it as the original in PMTR and phase one. 3. Last year I give Classic winner Gun Runner 91.50 EPR 85.75 LPR & TPR 187.25 at SA, his last 1/4 FR was 26.26, to adjust to 1/3/16, 26.26 is divided by 4 ( 6.565 per 1/16) 6.565 is deducted to obtain 3rd FR. 4. Thunder Snow 76 EPR 113.50 LPR & TPR 186.50 adjusted to 1/3/16 and 6 lg. added for variant, 2/3rds to EPR & 1/3 to LPR. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-05-2018 at 10:10 AM.