[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by joseph

Joseph thanks you for your TX INSIGHTS.



Yet , how would one factor as a measurable value this apparently inside and outside the Rdss numbers clue into the body of the program to alert users ?

Here in Las Vegas 2 players I know occasionally do nothing but track odds..

No doubt it is a phenomenon, but its inner workings remain a mystery to me.

It recalls the days of that famous radio show: I Love a Mystery.

Joseph,

Just adding my response from an email I sent you to the public discussion:

'Tote Xray' is a ratio between the win, place and show pools for each horse and between that ratio and the pool totals, weighted by the Win odds. So, it is pool ratios tempered by Win Odds – resulting in a number which is not shown, for every horse, which numbers are then expressed like the Perceptor numbers where 0.0% represents BEST and other numbers for other horses represent a percentage deviation from that BEST.

Often the Win Pool favourite is also the Tote Xray 0.0 horse, which means no new information and thus no extra value from the TX. TX value lies either:
- where the 0.0 horse is not the favourite, or where the favourite is lukewarm, for example > 5/2
- where the 2nd or 3rd ranked TX are fairly close to 0.0%, for example < 1%, yet their Win odds are rather higher than the favourite, for example 2nd or 3rd TX win odds may be 5-1 or higher

Tote Xray usually become effective beginning 2 MTP, perhaps even later, possibly depending on track and pool size. Although the TX ratios suffer from late changes as do win odds ranks, I have observed (though perhaps only anecdotally) that the rank of the TX ratios changes LESS than the rank of the Win Odds. If I wanted to know the top 4 horses according to WPS mutuel pools, at 1 MTP rather than after the gate opens, I would consult the TX ranks more than the Odds ranks. Something for hopefully confirmative observation ...

These are some uses of Tote Xray. I am not sure one can make a primary betting strategy with this tool, except perhaps a 4+ horse dutching or hedging strategy in 8+ fields where one is aiming for a break-even plus a good rebate. However, combined with other observed useful handicapping and matchup corollaries, it can be one more positive or negative factor to tip one’s opinion toward or away from a given horse – in the latter category, so much the more fortunate if that horse has a lot of money bet on it. I also have found it useful to evaluate (when I must) First Timers, Foreign Horses or Long Layoff horses.

Hope this is helpful to your explorations!

yours,

Ted