[NeedForSpeed]

OP 4-13-2013 Race 4

CONTENDERS
1- Banjammer > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
2- Bid Til Included > This horses last race was a “0” and the next pace line is 175 days away. I don’t want to go too far back and this horse hasn’t shown a strong win tendency in recent races. OUT
3- A Student > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
4- Tiz Tee Time > 3 “+” lines out if its last 4 races although all are sprints. WIN CONTENDER
5- Nehro > I may need help with this one. 301 days off? I just can’t justify this. Also I noticed (it may or may not mean anything) as much class as it has its only wins are maiden and NW1. OUT
6- Kates main man > SCRATCH
7- Omniscient > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. I wanted to make him ITM contender because he hasn’t won in his last 10 but he is 5 out of 31 lifetime. My decision was WIN CONTENDER
8- Runaway Pepper > SCRATCH
9- Truetap > This horse’s pattern is “0”, “0”, “+”, “0”, “+”. He was claimed 3 back and has been dismal in his last 2 NW2X races. Today’s race is NW2X. Do I toss the horse? There’s just enough in the overall PP’s to keep him in. WIN CONTENDER
10- Livonzin > There are no routes in his 4 races. Started 2 for 2 then came up short as a favorite and was put on the shelf. Maybe the first race back was a tune up for this new attempt at distance? Because of its record I am keeping it in. WIN CONTENDER

PACE LINES
1- Banjammer > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
3- A Student > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
4- Tiz Tee Time > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
7- Omniscient > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
9- Truetap > The only usable pace line within the last 90 days is the 3rd pace line. But the 2nd pace line has no excuses. Should I now toss this horse due to that? LINE 3
10- Livonzin > This horse made a big move between 1st and 2nd calls to get to 2.7 lengths behind. Is this a usable pace line? Or is this horse out without a good pace line within 90 days? LINE 1

RACE ANALYSIS
Velocity PoH shows the 10 to get the early lead and be the pace setter. But the 10 is weak late and will fall off. There are no other lead or presser types so I can’t see any projected “L’s” winning the race. I eliminate the 9 from win status. I now have 2 “SP’s” and 2 “S’s”. I give more weight to the “SP’s” because the pace is weak and unless the “S’s” show a clear advantage I want to stick with the “SP’s”. First thing I see is the #1 horse. He has the best ASR at 82 and is an “SP”. Win selection. That leaves 3 horses and they are all very close in all categories. Their ASR’s are basically the same so with the #4 as the only “SP” of the 3 horses #4 is my other win selection.

My question coming out of this concerns the 9 and 10 horses. At pace line selection if pace line 2 has no excuses do I toss the horse without going to a valid pace line 3? For horse 10 can I use that “big move” pace line?