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Old 07-26-2021, 06:21 PM   #17
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Kisha,

I don't use the colour-coding aspect of the Exacta grid, but I suspect it relates to Exacta fair odds payouts compared to the Win odds of the 2 horses in a particular Exacta combo.

There are 3 distinct colour-coding patterns in this grid: yellow, pink and white. Ignore the yellow coding for 1-1 and 5-5 combos (anomaly), so only the 3-5 combo is yellow. If you had shown the Win odds for all horses we could work it out.

One group is (likely) more-or-less fairly priced (give or take a % range). Another group is priced above the fair-price payout and the other group below the fair-priced payout. If this is correct - only bet on combos (or groups of combos) which offer a better payout than betting one horse to Win and the other horse to Place. In practice, this on-the-fly analysis is harder to do than eyeballing an exacta box or part-wheel and adding extra tickets on lower paying combos. But I suspect that's what the colour-coding is giving you information about.

You can research this further yourself after digesting the Exacta fair pay formulas given in this discussion: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6059 You can also Google 'exacta fair price' to find numerous discussions, including adjustments for Henery and Harville discounting (many of them by Dr Z).

Of course, using Win Odds for BOTH horses in a combo is an approximation - you really want Win Odds for the top horse and Place odds for the bottom horse, but Place odds are not clearly shown. However, on the RDSS Tote screen, you can see the probability % for each horse in all 3 straight pools (WPS) - the small superscript #s. If the prob % for Place is the same as for Win, then you know the Odds for Place (same as for Win). If it is higher or lower by anything significant, you can roughly adjust the odds for Place up or down.

Eventually, the RDSS Tote screen will show Exacta/Quinella fair odds pricing and over/underlays based on your preferred overlay margin %. (And all the other Dutching/Hedging tools and more shown in Amwager).

I use the AmWager Dutch Cost tool for Quinellas all the time at Hong Kong. Use your contenders and form combos for the total amount you want to spend. I cut off adding contenders (at worst, in contentious races) when my payouts fall below a certain %ROI. Keeping an eye on the lowest payoff/favourite (lowest payoff/favourite combo shown in red text) helps you know what your breakeven is. The Dutch calculator shows your range of min/max ROI for your Exacta Dutch. The same tools work for Dutching Win, Exacta/Quinella and Double pools. For example, based on my general hit rate on HK Quinellas, I'll take anything north of 50% ROI on a group dutch (to help me earn more rebates).

I wonder why they said you wouldn't benefit from opening a betting account? I think they accept applications from your state. Perhaps try applying via NHPLAY.com.

Ted
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