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Dave Swartz has done an article on picking losers. He is correct in his theory in that for every loser on can eliminate it places you closer to your goal.
Determining a false favorite is also a huge advantage to players of this sport. I find this to be the most difficult thing in racing to do,especially on any consistent basis. On many of these type horses you never know until the race is over whether the decision was correct. Such as current soundness, able to stretch out, accept a new surface etc. We never know when a horse ran one race too many or too hard until several races later. Horses on the Derby trail easily fall into this category.
This game has been beaten several times but once the masses get it and it belongs to everyone the playing field gets leveled again. With the advancement of technology (computers) the game has changed along with small fields and too many tracks etc. Results are more favorites win and are created from smaller fields and too much racing / tracks.
The effect of all this has also caused prices to drop and its not unusual for the majority of winners to pay under $9 on most cards, and if you miss that race paying $11 or $12 that day then it could be a bad day.
Richards mathematical formula basically is a more complicated form of Sartin 's take on wager capping. A problem with all this is its like beauty in that an overlay in in the eye / judgment of the player. At one time I use to take 9-5 ($5.60) on a horse and my records showed I could make a profit on this. I got away from this and turned this around. That percentage is very good for me and becomes a key horse to key in such a way as too make a profit.
One area I part ways with Sartin is that I don't believe in wager capping. I always ask the question of how can I make money out of this race from my assessment or handicapping. Winners are the springboard to all profits and success, period. This includes contests. EX,DD,P-3's etc. In fact most P6 are won by mostly regular paying horses and only 1 or 2 very good priced horses. Not all bombs as the public perceives. The valid question of ,how can I make money out of this race is so important and even more so today along with money management.
The old standard of being an expert, which I learned at a Sartin seminar, still exists today. And that is as Richard states here today of 33% on one horse betting. Also as he states the public has problems picking Ex. horses etc. I doubt many here even look at a Ex. or DD matrix of the payoff, but you need to know whether a bet is worth the risk. Everyone looks at the tote and cans see the horse is 1/1 on the board but most/ majority don't look at a EX or DD matrix to see if a bet is worthwhile. Maybe hard today at the track with its long lines but not in this computer age. Years ago at Parx (several name changes since then) I use to select a teller that had an overhead TV so I could see the changes before I got up to the window. As Richard points out there is a lot of money to be made in exotic pools and it remains hidden to most.
There is still some Sartin concepts that remain out of the public domain which gives us an edge. While pace is out there and the price has diminished it still is effective to get that key horse. Also other pace numbers out there by and large just aren't good at all. Lt1 and I did separate studies of Pizzolla pace numbers and for a guy who once worked for Sartin his numbers were the worse I've ever seen. Even the very old PMTR numbers could beat it.Other Sartin tools are not used at all or not being used by the masses and they give us an edge over them. Pundits talk of the match up on TV but few really understand its concepts and inter working.
The tools in your Sartin toolbox are useless and just collecting rust if not used. And if you don't know what that tool is for, well it'll never get used.
Exploit any edge you can get and capitalize on the public mistakes. As Richard says today its not about percentages of winners but making money. If you lost 9 out of 10 races and hit the last for a $1 profit for the day it was a good day. Winners are the springboard to profits regardless of what they pay, they are the key.
Yesterday my Dubai winner only paid $4.60 but keyed a $125.60 Ex. The Arabs betting those local horses really overlaid the Ex pool.
Finally large fields cause maximum confusion and aid in better win prices and exotics.
Mitch44
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