Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam
[Y]our most important job when handicapping and betting a race is to find a horse going off at 3-1 or LOWER that, in your trusted opinion, CANNOT WIN. This will create a pari-mutuel pool for your individual bet that now has +EV, and if your contender selection/pace line selection/betting selection skills are any good, you have a fighting chance to actually make $ at this game. For those who are successful, most of their winnings come from betting to win on horses paying more than $10, or betting exactas where the place horse is NOT one of the top 3 betting choices, or betting horizontals where at least half of the sequence is won by horses paying 4-1 or higher.
Richard
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What an excellent post and paragraph! I no longer play races with legitimate favorites (unless it's a horizontal exotic where I have to play something chalky in one leg). I'm not smart enough to do Richard's math in my head for +EV, but I can remember this.
