[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi FTL
Yes your comments and illustrations helps
Yes I see the 2 is a Early Presser when running routes The 5 is a Early 7
So in this match up who will win Isn't the third fraction the difference ?


You wrote


I have switched the PP tabs to add the LPR or FFR = 3rd fraction readings
For horse #2 I have crossed out the sprint races like you did
It runs third fractions of ...
82.8, 79.8, 90.5 80,4 92,1 and it uses its energy more toward the sustained side of the Early Late graph
The 5 is much more of a early energy horse. It did run a 92.5 and a 91 3rd fractions in lines 5 and 6 But look at its last 4 races.
It ran 3rd fractions of only 77.7 80.5 57,7 71.5
These are 5000 claimer 3rd fractions ! The #2 in when in form will kill the 5 because the 5 seems to have lost its 3rd fraction ability. I agree that
once a early horse loses its lead it fades or in the 5's case quits
But it seems to me that the 5 just is unable to compete past the 2nd call
and its losing its lead because of its inability to carry its energy into the 3rd fraction.



After all I doubt there are many here who can see what you do and just by eye ball can tell the 5 will quit.
The rest of us depend on the Sartin programs and the Sartin programs give us a readout and ranking of all three fractions. Actually It did a good job in this race although it had the 2 much to far back in the first two fractions.

I started this thread following your lead in doing some “in depth” handicapping by looking at more than just a running line. By looking back at a previous race (or races) in an effort to gain a better understanding of how a horse will run today. More recently, Ted posted up a similar effort and when I came across yet another similar circumstance I thought it a good idea to share it, so others will read about your race, Ted’s race and the race last night. In all three cases, taking the time to really handicap and dig into not only today’s race, but previous races paid off with good priced winners.

With respect to the Delaware Park race, you made a good point by comparing the 3rd fraction of two early type horses. If comparing the 3rd fraction of two early horses can help anyone, then I am in favor of it. That is analyzing a “race within a race”. Further, if my critique of the #2 horse in that race can lead anyone to the point where they recognize that horse as an early horse, then “mission accomplished”. All early horses are not as easy to recognize as the #5 horse in that race. Obviously the line maker saw something in the #2 horse that the public couldn’t see. The line maker made the #2 horse the ML favorite at 2/1. The public sent the horse off at 5/1. Keeping mind that the line maker makes their ML based on how they think the public will bet, the line maker, in this case, gave the public too much credit. This is a good thing for those who can see what the line maker saw.

Finally, when I say,” I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race”, I am saying something of which I am certain. I always find myself coming back to something Jim Bradshaw use to say. “Horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse goes out for the lead. If no other horse can pass it…it WINS!” In those races I’m sure a pre-race analysis showed horses with strong 3rd fractions that, ultimately, did not serve them well in races that developed in that way.

It is very unlikely that an early horse that fades will ever come out on top on the BL/BL screen, especially since the 3rd fraction in RDSS is double weighted.
It would be very unlikely that an early horse that fades would ever come out on top on the BL/BL screen even if the 3rd fraction wasn’t double weighted.
In the context of a field of horses, it will be the closers that are dominant in the 3rd fraction, not the early horse that fades. For RDSS users, compare the BL/BL screen to the “original” screen where you can see how the horses ran in the line you chose.
Take a look at the original and BL/BL screens from the PEN race last night.
Here is the original screen.


Now let's look at the BL/BL for this race.



It is little wonder that two closers sit atop the BL/BL.

Therefore, as you pointed out in the “Bill V goes the extra mile” thread, as Ted pointed out in his recap of the Queen’s Plate race and as I pointed out in the 2nd race at PEN last night, doing some extra handicapping work with respect to what the early horse has been up against recently in the way of other dedicated early horses running against it and how the other possible early contenders may affect the race today, makes the difference.