Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Fulcrum Pace Query

Ted Craven · 03-30-2014, 12:06 PM

DSL,

As usual, I don't really understand you ...

RDSS does not compute or otherwise display something labeled as 'Fulcrum'. I'm sure others have discussed and taught how to determine a Fulcrum (a concept from Michael Pizzolla). Perhaps they will respond here. I never read about the 'Fulcrum' in the Follow Ups, or if I did, I forgot about it and would not say that I look for it when I handicap a race. I'm sure others do, and can help you.

I don't see how RDSS has a bug related to this, because RDSS does not do 'Fulcrum'.

RDSS does show the last paceline for each horse (Original, Adjusted, etc). It does show you who set or ran against that fastest pace, last race (FPLR). See the many discussions in the Hat Check Matchup Forum re Fastest Pace Last Race. I suspect this is indistinguishable from the 'Fulcrum'.

Does that regularly give you good info - the 'Fulcrum'? Is that all you need to get the winner, or understand the Early Pace?

Consider the following readouts from yesterday's Florida Derby at Gulfstream (one of the 4 Derby Prep Races you mention). These line selections are the Last Line (just use the 'Last Line' PSS). As it happens, with so few running lines for some of these hroses, and they are improving, good young horses, even the 'Best of Last 3 Comparable' PSS selected the last line for the top 4 contenders (I made the bottom 4, on the BL screen. non-contenders).

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If the 'Fulcrum' is the horse who set (or ran against?) the fastest pace in everyone's last race, then there it is, on the Original screen. If it is something else (useful), or there are more nuances - I hope to learn.

There is certainly more analysis that can be discussed about why the Top 4 Contenders on the BL screen above should or shouldn't be in the positions shown, but clearly Cairo Prince at 6/5 bet-time odds should look better than he does above (i.e. a favourite with some 'defects'). The Winner #4 Constitution can run from off the pace as well as on the lead, which is how he ran.

Admittedly, there is a scarcity of running lines for Constitution and who knew if he was goning to find running room, coming on late on the rail (he did).

However, there were some clues - also clues that those 2 Fighters for the lead #1 and #6 would tire themselves.

I'm not sure what contribution to the analysis (at least for this race) knowing how to determine a 'Fulcrum' was. Whatever it is, you can get the same (and more) insight by Matchup analysis and by dissecting the components of the BL Line Score, then determining price available relative to the horses' rankings. IMO.

(FWIW, our Teams picks in the PA Contest: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...1&postcount=48)

Hope that helps - or at least prompts more discussion.

Ted

03-30-2014, 12:06 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	DSL, As usual, I don't really understand you ... RDSS does not compute or otherwise display something labeled as 'Fulcrum'. I'm sure others have discussed and taught how to determine a Fulcrum (a concept from Michael Pizzolla). Perhaps they will respond here. I never read about the 'Fulcrum' in the Follow Ups, or if I did, I forgot about it and would not say that I look for it when I handicap a race. I'm sure others do, and can help you. I don't see how RDSS has a bug related to this, because RDSS does not do 'Fulcrum'. RDSS does show the last paceline for each horse (Original, Adjusted, etc). It does show you who set or ran against that fastest pace, last race (FPLR). See the many discussions in the Hat Check Matchup Forum re Fastest Pace Last Race. I suspect this is indistinguishable from the 'Fulcrum'. Does that regularly give you good info - the 'Fulcrum'? Is that all you need to get the winner, or understand the Early Pace? Consider the following readouts from yesterday's Florida Derby at Gulfstream (one of the 4 Derby Prep Races you mention). These line selections are the Last Line (just use the 'Last Line' PSS). As it happens, with so few running lines for some of these hroses, and they are improving, good young horses, even the 'Best of Last 3 Comparable' PSS selected the last line for the top 4 contenders (I made the bottom 4, on the BL screen. non-contenders). If the 'Fulcrum' is the horse who set (or ran against?) the fastest pace in everyone's last race, then there it is, on the Original screen. If it is something else (useful), or there are more nuances - I hope to learn. There is certainly more analysis that can be discussed about why the Top 4 Contenders on the BL screen above should or shouldn't be in the positions shown, but clearly Cairo Prince at 6/5 bet-time odds should look better than he does above (i.e. a favourite with some 'defects'). The Winner #4 Constitution can run from off the pace as well as on the lead, which is how he ran. Admittedly, there is a scarcity of running lines for Constitution and who knew if he was goning to find running room, coming on late on the rail (he did). However, there were some clues - also clues that those 2 Fighters for the lead #1 and #6 would tire themselves. I'm not sure what contribution to the analysis (at least for this race) knowing how to determine a 'Fulcrum' was. Whatever it is, you can get the same (and more) insight by Matchup analysis and by dissecting the components of the BL Line Score, then determining price available relative to the horses' rankings. IMO. (FWIW, our Teams picks in the PA Contest: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...1&postcount=48) Hope that helps - or at least prompts more discussion. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™