Here was the BL/BL with Final Odds. Assuming one had the same pacelines and elims/hides that I did (forget handicapping, pretend that this is how your contenders lined up), how would one have played this race given this particular matchup?
Personally, I felt that playing my top tier in more proportional strength than my price runner in Tier 3 was correct as far as a two-horse Win strategy went, especially since #3 was 5/2 and its BL odds were 8/5. However, since my bottom tier runner was offering tremendous value with mild corollary support, it was also worth a small wager.
Obviously, the 3/1 exacta came in at a decent number, and I can't go back and play it post-hoc, but given the odds of my lower tiers, and the fact that #3 was the counter-energy late runner in a race dominated by E/EP ESP types, would a flat or proportioned Win bet on the price runners, backed up with an exacta keying the counter energy runner with the overlays been the better route? What about betting the longshots to Place and flat betting to Win the top tier?
Everybody bets differently, which I get, but I feel that I am leaving a lot on the table being so "win" oriented and not paying more attention to the other wager opportunities offered on a race-by-race basis.