Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 01:48 PM

Bill
here was my thought process.

The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.

The #3's sprint line - is 3rd at the break and goes back a position to 4th at first fraction. I think after seeing this that the race will now be run on the #1's terms and pace. BUT now that race of the #3 was 2 ticks faster at 1st call. Let's look a little deeper at the 3.

In 3 races showing the 3 has pressed or fought with horses for the lead.
1) last line where he fought for the lead at first fraction in a route times in 23.3(5ths). Since I already "know" he ain't getting the lead over the #1 throw that race out.

2)line 4 at 8.5f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at the 2nd call.Fractions are 24-48.1 STOP. Right away this is way too SLOW for what will go down today.

3) line 5 at 8f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at 2nd call. Fractions 24.1 STOP. This whole race is an illusion if you will because that first fraction is insanely slow.

Hope some of this made sense Bill.

Hat laid this on me one day when we worked a race at Aqueduct one morning that was gonna be run later that day. He was heading to the simulcast and I told him I had a winner for him. It was very similar to this layout and I did all this fancy work with pace of race and altering positions etc.

Jim listened quietly and when I was done said "Rich someone has to get after that pacesetter before the 2nd call. If they leave him alone he's gone.Look at your horses pp's and show me where he can challenge". THIS is when he started bringing up the break positions and seeing what the horses do from there to the first call/fraction.

Turned out he was right. My horse never did mount a challenge and lost horribly to the "pacesetter" as Hat put it. The next day he taught me a little about that race type. That is what I have tried to show here
Richie

03-05-2008, 01:48 PM	#8
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Bill here was my thought process. The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction. The #3's sprint line - is 3rd at the break and goes back a position to 4th at first fraction. I think after seeing this that the race will now be run on the #1's terms and pace. BUT now that race of the #3 was 2 ticks faster at 1st call. Let's look a little deeper at the 3. In 3 races showing the 3 has pressed or fought with horses for the lead. 1) last line where he fought for the lead at first fraction in a route times in 23.3(5ths). Since I already "know" he ain't getting the lead over the #1 throw that race out. 2)line 4 at 8.5f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at the 2nd call.Fractions are 24-48.1 STOP. Right away this is way too SLOW for what will go down today. 3) line 5 at 8f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at 2nd call. Fractions 24.1 STOP. This whole race is an illusion if you will because that first fraction is insanely slow. Hope some of this made sense Bill. Hat laid this on me one day when we worked a race at Aqueduct one morning that was gonna be run later that day. He was heading to the simulcast and I told him I had a winner for him. It was very similar to this layout and I did all this fancy work with pace of race and altering positions etc. Jim listened quietly and when I was done said "Rich someone has to get after that pacesetter before the 2nd call. If they leave him alone he's gone.Look at your horses pp's and show me where he can challenge". THIS is when he started bringing up the break positions and seeing what the horses do from there to the first call/fraction. Turned out he was right. My horse never did mount a challenge and lost horribly to the "pacesetter" as Hat put it. The next day he taught me a little about that race type. That is what I have tried to show here Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"