Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Jeebs · 04-25-2017, 02:00 PM

Pacelines/Run Styles:

#1 - Line 4/Early. 2nd best PoR and Percept.
#2 - Line 4/Early. 3rd best PoR, 4th best Percept.
#3 - Line 8/Early-Early Fighter. Hasn't had to face a pressured PoR recently, hence the old line. 2nd best PoR and Percept. Can pass horses, doesn't need to bust out of the box.
#4 - Line 3/Early. Took 4th best PoR as it hasn't faced such pressure last two outs. 4th best Percept too.
#5 - Line 2/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR, top Percept. Line is at today's distance too, which is a plus. Looks like it will have some TT power, which could be crucial on this "off" surface.
#6 - Line 2 (Extracted)/Early Presser. 3rd best Percept, but is weak vs. 170+ TE PoR's. Drops further down today and could be suspect in this type of a field.
#7 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR and Percept total. Shows excellent form OTE.

Basically a "3 matching Earlies" situation here between 2-1-3 in that order at F1. 1-2-3-4 are "E" runners based on the Energy ESP, which leaves #5 (EP), #7 (P), and #6 (SP) to counter the E energy types. #5 can pass horses, has had success on "off" surfaces and most importantly, is a "new" face in here. #7 can run in the middle of the pack and even though the E/L graph trends on the Early side, this one often runs its race and isn't affected much by the developed pace. #6 is visually an EP style runner, but unlike #7, tends to get bothered by how a pace develops.

Betting two horses here without regards to Bottom Line (since this is more of a "Match Up" exercise), I would bet #5 and #7, and hope that we get a nice price on #5 to make it worthwhile.

04-25-2017, 02:00 PM	#7
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	I say "Fold"... Pacelines/Run Styles: #1 - Line 4/Early. 2nd best PoR and Percept. #2 - Line 4/Early. 3rd best PoR, 4th best Percept. #3 - Line 8/Early-Early Fighter. Hasn't had to face a pressured PoR recently, hence the old line. 2nd best PoR and Percept. Can pass horses, doesn't need to bust out of the box. #4 - Line 3/Early. Took 4th best PoR as it hasn't faced such pressure last two outs. 4th best Percept too. #5 - Line 2/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR, top Percept. Line is at today's distance too, which is a plus. Looks like it will have some TT power, which could be crucial on this "off" surface. #6 - Line 2 (Extracted)/Early Presser. 3rd best Percept, but is weak vs. 170+ TE PoR's. Drops further down today and could be suspect in this type of a field. #7 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR and Percept total. Shows excellent form OTE. Basically a "3 matching Earlies" situation here between 2-1-3 in that order at F1. 1-2-3-4 are "E" runners based on the Energy ESP, which leaves #5 (EP), #7 (P), and #6 (SP) to counter the E energy types. #5 can pass horses, has had success on "off" surfaces and most importantly, is a "new" face in here. #7 can run in the middle of the pack and even though the E/L graph trends on the Early side, this one often runs its race and isn't affected much by the developed pace. #6 is visually an EP style runner, but unlike #7, tends to get bothered by how a pace develops. Betting two horses here without regards to Bottom Line (since this is more of a "Match Up" exercise), I would bet #5 and #7, and hope that we get a nice price on #5 to make it worthwhile.