Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptDon100
Bill, Thanks for your reply, It's not that I never get the winner, I am trying to improve my game. I do keep records, There are races that I should have won, but missed. I send a lot of time on pace lines and the fact that my winners are in the top 4 is good, I just need to narrow it down. The race I was trying to past was the 7th at FG on 12-15 I had 6-7-5-1 and 5-1-6-7 came in.
I played 6-7. I don't always pick all 4 on top, but this one I did. That is a frustrating miss.
Thanks
Don
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Don,
I will post a workup of this race next, but just using YOUR handicapping, YOUR final Odds Line rankings of 6-7-5-1 (although I disagree with you about the #6) - I'd like to suggest that with the #5 closing near 10-1 - IF you presume that your top 3 BL/BL have an equally good chance to win (which you should strongly consider), your 2 horse bet should have been the 6-5, not the 6-7, and you could have considered betting the #5 to
place as well.
The reasoning is - take your Top horse at YOUR minimum odds (you would have had to set that on the cusp of 5/2 or 2-1 for the #6 horse) and your longest odds of the remaining Top 3 (the #5). You will find this idea discussed often, not only in these pages but in the later Follow Ups under the topic of 'wagercapping'.
Pick any race you like - get your BL Odds line in order - include only true contenders to Win, separate out the not-for-win horses. Then apply the foregoing logic. You will win and lose some by omitting the wrong horse of your Top 3, but by including the BEST of your Odds Line horses at YOUR minimum odds (say 5/2 or 3-1) and the other longest horse - when you win, you'll be making up for the times you lose with better odds (and picking up the odd saver with the Place hedge). Exacta bets are a separate discussion.
However, kindly consider the points in my next post about paceline selection, contender ID (especially re recency), but most especially the effect of
too much early pressure!
I'll take a look at your Message Editor layout and see why you don't have the 'paper-clip' attachment icon to attach screenshots to your posts. At the worst case, we can hook up and I'll show you how it's done, no worries.
Give me a few minutes to get my next post up ...
Ted
Ted