Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

DanBoals · 10-10-2022, 01:09 PM

I didn't download or bet this race, but from a matchup perspective it seems interesting. There are 3 early horses, all with 5 or 6 speed points and E or EP designations out of the 4 contenders. Are 6.5f dirt at Parx running sustained? Or is this just the matchup on this race?

Notice the top LPR horse with the greatest late E/L is the winner. According the adjusted SR (which I love) it is not the fastest horse, but is up there with the 4 and 8 as the top 3. Without seeing the chart, this kind of suggests the 4, 8 and 2 burned each other up so that none of them could place as the counter energy horse. In fact, the place horse was the #2 LPR horse who also had the only other negative E/L rating. The show horse was not an early horse either, it has an RS of S1, so I am guessing it inherited show.

I would be interested to know what percentage of races go late at 6.5f dirt at parx; how big of an anomaly was this race? I don't bet Parx because it seems like it has low mutuels day in and day out, but this race proves that at least on occasion there is money to be made there.

10-10-2022, 01:09 PM	#6
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 309	I didn't download or bet this race, but from a matchup perspective it seems interesting. There are 3 early horses, all with 5 or 6 speed points and E or EP designations out of the 4 contenders. Are 6.5f dirt at Parx running sustained? Or is this just the matchup on this race? Notice the top LPR horse with the greatest late E/L is the winner. According the adjusted SR (which I love) it is not the fastest horse, but is up there with the 4 and 8 as the top 3. Without seeing the chart, this kind of suggests the 4, 8 and 2 burned each other up so that none of them could place as the counter energy horse. In fact, the place horse was the #2 LPR horse who also had the only other negative E/L rating. The show horse was not an early horse either, it has an RS of S1, so I am guessing it inherited show. I would be interested to know what percentage of races go late at 6.5f dirt at parx; how big of an anomaly was this race? I don't bet Parx because it seems like it has low mutuels day in and day out, but this race proves that at least on occasion there is money to be made there.