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Old 08-22-2017, 12:07 AM   #3
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Pre-Analysis

#1 - No Line. Is 20-1 on the ML, but ran a + race in for $25k last out. Drops down to $14k. Big knock is 2/54 lifetime record. Absolutely not a "win" type. Can't use.
#2 - Line 3. Absolutely was flat last out in its initial run over the track. 3rd ranked Prime Power rating suggests to dive a little deeper for a line. Line 2 is a muddy track. Line 3 at today's distance shows a small middle move before tiring out. 3YO $25k to this 3up n3L $14k is a drop in price but likely a rise in company facing older.
#3 - No Line. No usable surface/distance line in the past 90 days makes this a tricky read. Visually got annihilated in its last 3 races. Its last truly "usable" is Line 4 from last September at Belmont, but that was going a 1-turn mile. 4th ranked Prime Power, so if I wanted to reach, I could, especially since this big dive is a move that Linda excels in. Either the horse wins for fun (and potentially gets claimed), or has gone sour. I am not a fan of the pattern and I just cannot bring myself to extract the Line 4 route line.
#4 - Last Line. Contested a fast pace over this surface last out. It is a + line. Top Prime Power rating.
#5 - No Line. 8th on Prime Power, and basically sucked up a show spot last out. Line 2 in the goo was just as bad, if not worse. Line 3 brings you back to July of last year at Belmont. The poor Prime Power is enough to turn me off in digging for a usable line. Out it goes.
#6 - No Line. No form. Horse has gone south since Sciacca claimed off of Rudy (the Line 3 1-turn mile win). Now being offered below purchase price. Fire sale.
#7 - Line 3. 2nd best Prime Power in the field. Both Lines 1 and 3 rank strong. Has been ultra-competitive in the Midwest and now drops in for the tag after finishing close in n1x allowance company. Drop makes sense here.
#8 - Line 1. I wish that the connections were confident enough in this one to raise the bar off the last line win. Nonetheless, this is my line.

Here are the lines:

Code:
             SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM
                                 PACELINE DATA
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR     TRKDISTS

 1  2 SUMME3    22.6  46.9 119.0  2.10  1.60  2.50  6.80  65     BEL 6.5D
 2  4 MADAM1    22.7  46.1 117.3  0.50  1.00  3.00  8.30  72     SAR 6.0D
 3  7 CHARI3    22.3  46.4 117.0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  82     PRM 5.5D
 4  8 CAUSE1    23.3  47.3 118.5  1.00  0.15  0.00  0.00  74     BEL 6.0D
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