|
Bill,
This was an excellent layout of the Guidelines and your handicapping.
The only thing I would add is that, based on my own research into turf races using FTL guidelines, you can accept a horse as a contender making a positional move to the second call that only gets it to say 3.5 lengths back at the second call (assuming it did not finish 1-2-3 in the subject race). This kind of corresponds to the nature of turf racing.
I would note that my research only encompassed a couple of hundred races, so it would pale in comparison with FTL's in that regard. And as you said, he decided that dirt runners were more dependable.
Really enjoyed your analysis.
|