[Jeebs]

Thank you Bill for laying this out. Although I am a little confused. If #6 is not as you say, a Win contender, how can it still have a 33% probability? I know that the output is based on your line synthesized by RDSS, but there should be a way to downgrade non-contenders who garner high percentages and to upgrade contenders whose computed percentage is actually lower due to the presence of the non-contender in the readout.

Tim

Originally Posted by Bill V.

In reply to what you write about in your work ups

I enter at least 1 line for every horse, There are tools in RDSS that separate
the horse by groups but I like to rate all the horses
I let the win probability number of RX 3 show me not only the RX3 rankings
I use the probability numbers of RX3 to make final decision on my win contenders
Horse 5 and 6 have 33%, The higher the probability number the more likely the winner .

In this race horse 1, 4, and 5 are win contenders based on their pacelines
and your guidelines ( my flavor)

Horses 2, 3 and 6 are not win contenders

Horse 5 and 6 have a big advantage in win probability percentage of RX3
They each have 33%. However I marked horse 6 as not a win contender

In this race my two win bets were horse 5 and since I have doubts about the 5 moving up to win again I also went for better odds and bet the #1 horse
with 14% win probability

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