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Hi Ryan-
Welcome...I tend not to pick horses without lines from a similar distance/surface as today. However, there are exceptions. No matter what though, I always go through the same process with a race initially....
1) Project Pace
2) Develop a feel for Early/Other Than Early race shape
For those steps I don't pay much, if any attention, to surface. For projected pace I always use a line from today's surface. For the E/OTE call, I don't pay too much attention to it either. For example, if there are multiple wild E-types who need open lengths to win, and none can get their comfort zone today, I will look OTE regardless of whether their lines were on today's surface or not.
The next step is to match the contenders in my projected winning group (E or OTE) against each other. Here is where I can match lines from different surfaces if I have to. For example, if you were down to the horse you posted about and another horse who had both dirt and turf lines, you could match them against each other based on dirt lines. The Hat also talked about this being acceptable in routes where contenders only had sprint lines: match them against each other with their sprint lines so you're comparing apples to apples.
Only do this though if you have a feeling that the horse can handle today's different surface/distance. In practice, I rarely end up picking a horse like this. Usually, it is only in cases where there appears to be an extreme match-up bias favoring my horse. For example, a turf route with several wild E's against a fast dirt router who runs OTE.
If I don't have a good feel for whether the horse can adapt to today's race type, or if there are too many calls like this in a race, I will pass.
Hope that helps and maybe some of the other guys can chime in about how they handle it.
Good luck with the Matchup!
Pete
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